{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ddd07a57-b068-4fa5-a577-990c8cb70201", "symbol": "VITL-UN", "name": "Vital Infrastructure Property Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 93.09, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.51, "architecture_energy": 17.778, "architecture_maturity": 41.683, "architecture_confidence": 57.314, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.79, "rotation_up": 44.61, "upward_expansion": 45.19, "deceleration": 39.56, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 10.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.577216, 5.555903, 5.495466, 5.485267 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.45, "trend_reference": 5.491235, "distance_from_trend": -0.007509, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.657245, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.811762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036361, "excess_performance": -0.156782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007509, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025801, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035069, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078118, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07243, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036361, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.439635, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3265600, "relative_activity": 1.115752, "balance": 0.439635, "dry_up": 1.141437, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042073, "annualized_volatility": 0.235746, "from_high_reference": -0.082399, "from_low_reference": 0.226789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.491235, "fair_value_reference": 4.657245, "structural_low": 5.074268, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.016979, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.031411, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.070793, "worst_return": -0.103175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.047891, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.023402, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.071067, "worst_return": -0.089349, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.105716, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.009587, "worst_return": -0.22102, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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5.467904, 5.408782, 5.422733, 5.436606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.610053, "volume": 3873900, "typical_volume": 3059380.0, "trend": 5.422331, "fair_value": 4.66125, "relative_strength": -2.626418, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.15456, "energy": 32.097321, "activity_lines": [ 5.535649, 5.446855, 5.437847, 5.450045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.550372, "volume": 3001100, "typical_volume": 2958470.0, "trend": 5.441572, "fair_value": 4.660239, "relative_strength": -3.414871, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.032612, "energy": 35.281765, "activity_lines": [ 5.559597, 5.471705, 5.448193, 5.458306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.77915, "volume": 4231000, "typical_volume": 2995840.0, "trend": 5.47005, "fair_value": 4.660296, "relative_strength": 0.290265, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.872067, "energy": 64.989787, "activity_lines": [ 5.649826, 5.53974, 5.481244, 5.480085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.59, "volume": 2865400, "typical_volume": 2961575.0, "trend": 5.489627, "fair_value": 4.659765, "relative_strength": -2.504362, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.490817, "energy": 43.426402, "activity_lines": [ 5.638514, 5.563261, 5.495641, 5.487824 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.45, "volume": 3265600, "typical_volume": 2926815.0, "trend": 5.491235, "fair_value": 4.657245, "relative_strength": -7.811762, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.510442, "energy": 17.777502, "activity_lines": [ 5.577216, 5.555903, 5.495466, 5.485267 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }