{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ddd96411-2947-435c-ad18-d4cf5749c320", "symbol": "688335", "name": "Shanghai CEO Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.133, "architecture_energy": 84.591, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.843, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.4, "rotation_up": 10.67, "upward_expansion": 21.18, "deceleration": 37.41, "rotation_down": 76.96, "downward_expansion": 96.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.508, 21.65323, 24.946291, 27.723553 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.639999, "trend_reference": 31.01917, "distance_from_trend": -0.334605, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.907001, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.175136, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.417772, "excess_performance": -0.374568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.334605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018918, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297542, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.730645, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.432021, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.417772, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.856521, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10720330, "relative_activity": 0.878867, "balance": 0.856521, "dry_up": 1.003607, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17992, "annualized_volatility": 0.704116, "from_high_reference": -0.538668, "from_low_reference": 0.50767 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.01917, "fair_value_reference": 15.907001, "structural_low": 16.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.009935, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.026005, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.266312, "worst_return": -0.164998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.080801, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.350529, "worst_return": -0.229853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.201791, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.105065, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.261905, "worst_return": -0.277316, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 13361181.45, "trend": 31.63117, "fair_value": 15.82906, "relative_strength": -15.121541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.650701, "energy": 71.286855, "activity_lines": [ 25.15, 26.709165, 29.140008, 30.917618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.530001, "volume": 13213758, "typical_volume": 13285132.7, "trend": 31.529503, "fair_value": 15.845547, "relative_strength": -26.112796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.529549, "energy": 89.853025, "activity_lines": [ 22.433334, 25.054032, 27.890364, 30.072382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.620001, "volume": 14179527, "typical_volume": 13160893.4, "trend": 31.407503, "fair_value": 15.862444, "relative_strength": -27.031032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.485176, "energy": 90.538704, "activity_lines": [ 20.415334, 23.638058, 26.751912, 29.239511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.5, "volume": 10853946, "typical_volume": 12466184.4, "trend": 31.229837, "fair_value": 15.875821, "relative_strength": -28.021978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.899896, "energy": 89.57945, "activity_lines": [ 19.388, 22.377717, 25.692173, 28.406768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.639999, "volume": 10720330, "typical_volume": 12197892.0, "trend": 31.01917, "fair_value": 15.907001, "relative_strength": -22.175136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.132816, "energy": 84.591493, "activity_lines": [ 19.508, 21.65323, 24.946291, 27.723553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }