{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dddf9cae-b906-4f7f-833c-62b4cc4f9b6c", "symbol": "RAS", "name": "Ragusa Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -89.614, "architecture_energy": 93.443, "architecture_maturity": 56.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.398, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.71, "rotation_up": 8.47, "upward_expansion": 21.43, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 84.81, "downward_expansion": 97.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.020533, 0.023164, 0.025019, 0.026845 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.017, "trend_reference": 0.0295, "distance_from_trend": -0.423729, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.025862, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.342669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.122231, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.563706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.423729, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076682, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.342669, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121738, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.471222, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.287709, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.555544, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 534470, "relative_activity": 1.409848, "balance": 2.555544, "dry_up": 0.829848, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176471, "annualized_volatility": 0.837817, "from_high_reference": -0.706897, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0295, "fair_value_reference": 0.025862, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.088573, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060918, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 1.277778, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.106408, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.141552, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.578947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.32, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, 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"energy": 23.992463, "activity_lines": [ 0.027, 0.026964, 0.027638, 0.029315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.026, "volume": 119958, "typical_volume": 384530.45, "trend": 0.030967, "fair_value": 0.026606, "relative_strength": -15.085502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.712351, "energy": 39.606621, "activity_lines": [ 0.0266, 0.026855, 0.027338, 0.028985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.024, "volume": 125858, "typical_volume": 342278.65, "trend": 0.030767, "fair_value": 0.026369, "relative_strength": -21.68451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.589007, "energy": 53.550193, "activity_lines": [ 0.025533, 0.026327, 0.02691, 0.028535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.018, "volume": 478087, "typical_volume": 360256.55, "trend": 0.030433, "fair_value": 0.026099, "relative_strength": -42.578423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.680188, "energy": 80.219166, "activity_lines": [ 0.022933, 0.024745, 0.025971, 0.027712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.017, "volume": 534470, "typical_volume": 379097.65, "trend": 0.0295, "fair_value": 0.025862, "relative_strength": -47.122231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.613701, "energy": 93.443451, "activity_lines": [ 0.020533, 0.023164, 0.025019, 0.026845 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }