{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dde19ced-06a7-4ddc-9c15-e0e70e71508c", "symbol": "RIEU", "name": "L&G MSCI Europe Select UCITS ETF - EUR Accumulating ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.428, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.285, "architecture_energy": 76.979, "architecture_maturity": 23.429, "architecture_confidence": 77.443, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 67.73, "upward_expansion": 89.03, "deceleration": 49.35, "rotation_down": 18.92, "downward_expansion": 15.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.9363, 19.797482, 19.466512, 19.221354 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.262501, "trend_reference": 18.974767, "distance_from_trend": 0.067866, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.406026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235065, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.865958, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.07917, "excess_performance": 0.027935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067866, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033131, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235065, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062478, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01866, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025822, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07917, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.25607, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21024, "relative_activity": 0.148731, "balance": 0.25607, "dry_up": 0.551643, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018021, "annualized_volatility": 0.153733, "from_high_reference": -0.00283, "from_low_reference": 0.206676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.974767, "fair_value_reference": 16.406026, "structural_low": 17.190001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.006206, "positive_rate": 0.527778, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.000149, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.053945, "worst_return": -0.055296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018974, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.004152, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.067543, "worst_return": -0.055973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050168, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.002213, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.112124, "worst_return": -0.139067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-31", "close": 19.879999, "volume": 35637, "typical_volume": 142409.0, "trend": 18.917117, "fair_value": 16.363709, "relative_strength": 0.254217, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.71999, "energy": 63.490699, "activity_lines": [ 19.778166, 19.663036, 19.347752, 19.134555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.262501, "volume": 21024, "typical_volume": 141355.55, "trend": 18.974767, "fair_value": 16.406026, "relative_strength": 1.865958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.28495, "energy": 76.978875, "activity_lines": [ 19.9363, 19.797482, 19.466512, 19.221354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }