{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dde367de-7433-4171-a01e-cc9d2e30f387", "symbol": "XX2D", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI China A UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.885, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.58, "architecture_energy": 26.86, "architecture_maturity": 45.361, "architecture_confidence": 60.788, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.54, "rotation_up": 17.01, "upward_expansion": 17.78, "deceleration": 68.23, "rotation_down": 60.0, "downward_expansion": 40.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.762666, 41.270181, 41.594381, 41.327742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.744999, "trend_reference": 40.991, "distance_from_trend": 0.018394, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.842258, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.310994, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.873265, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.03895, "excess_performance": -0.012286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018394, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025797, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.310994, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081979, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028733, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111683, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03895, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.236531, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4894, "relative_activity": 0.986594, "balance": 2.236531, "dry_up": 0.996271, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03151, "annualized_volatility": 0.172486, "from_high_reference": -0.047787, "from_low_reference": 0.232871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.991, "fair_value_reference": 31.842258, "structural_low": 37.709999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.007743, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.00038, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.292183, "worst_return": -0.068861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036194, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.004708, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.124238, "worst_return": -0.068147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091626, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.019101, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.214581, "worst_return": -0.04731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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10.702729, "activity_lines": [ 41.503999, 41.896818, 41.736381, 41.362839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.369999, "volume": 5585, "typical_volume": 5570.3, "trend": 40.933, "fair_value": 31.683412, "relative_strength": -4.541899, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.268688, "energy": 20.49645, "activity_lines": [ 40.939666, 41.585363, 41.654928, 41.329667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.110001, "volume": 3898, "typical_volume": 5495.7, "trend": 40.951833, "fair_value": 31.752867, "relative_strength": -6.33667, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.062796, "energy": 35.107073, "activity_lines": [ 40.486, 41.261818, 41.546452, 41.27657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.744999, "volume": 4894, "typical_volume": 4960.5, "trend": 40.991, "fair_value": 31.842258, "relative_strength": -2.873265, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.579886, "energy": 26.860487, "activity_lines": [ 40.762666, 41.270181, 41.594381, 41.327742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }