{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dde40422-29c1-4049-b355-3c36ddefdf15", "symbol": "JMAT", "name": "Johnson Matthey Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.524, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.321, "architecture_energy": 9.177, "architecture_maturity": 21.85, "architecture_confidence": 54.24, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.46, "rotation_up": 21.78, "upward_expansion": 13.83, "deceleration": 60.11, "rotation_down": 36.87, "downward_expansion": 63.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 2020.0, 2007.381818, 2035.052686, 2038.479555 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2168.0, "trend_reference": 2077.813684, "distance_from_trend": 0.043404, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1740.189713, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245841, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.212875, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054688, "excess_performance": -0.105924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043404, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014326, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.245841, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021785, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054688, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.224169, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3782012, "relative_activity": 1.730424, "balance": 2.224169, "dry_up": 1.318503, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078139, "annualized_volatility": 0.327386, "from_high_reference": -0.109061, "from_low_reference": 0.252167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2077.813684, "fair_value_reference": 1740.189713, "structural_low": 1731.398063, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.008459, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.009789, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.259073, "worst_return": -0.244054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.04795, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.076618, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.359842, "worst_return": -0.295443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.070954, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.076754, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.24415, "worst_return": 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-0.065469, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165414, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149279, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034953, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.167286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078755, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08072, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102019, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087306, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130344, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1597.429932, "volume": 2337577, "typical_volume": 3543733.75, "trend": 1915.458716, "fair_value": 2315.390433, "relative_strength": -15.627028, 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"activity_lines": [ 1946.933333, 1979.153955, 2020.606943, 2032.948012 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2168.0, "volume": 3782012, "typical_volume": 2185598.25, "trend": 2077.813684, "fair_value": 1740.189713, "relative_strength": -3.212875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.320956, "energy": 9.177488, "activity_lines": [ 2020.0, 2007.381818, 2035.052686, 2038.479555 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }