{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dde6f89d-cd0b-4de6-b547-c36aaec4e352", "symbol": "688521", "name": "VeriSilicon Microelectronics (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.801, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.14, "architecture_energy": 27.509, "architecture_maturity": 22.648, "architecture_confidence": 53.869, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.19, "rotation_up": 16.99, "upward_expansion": 17.59, "deceleration": 68.46, "rotation_down": 60.69, "downward_expansion": 40.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 223.006668, 246.219274, 251.674239, 247.963894 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 230.5, "trend_reference": 239.224668, "distance_from_trend": -0.036471, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 103.960642, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.217185, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.13682, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.038242, "excess_performance": 0.081445, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036471, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180059, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.217185, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.713041, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.151368, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.365146, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038242, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.435757, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96309844, "relative_activity": 1.007025, "balance": 0.435757, "dry_up": 1.100514, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208116, "annualized_volatility": 0.996137, "from_high_reference": -0.337225, "from_low_reference": 1.438379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 239.224668, "fair_value_reference": 103.960642, "structural_low": 170.210007, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.076907, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.061531, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.244353, "worst_return": -0.192963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.067144, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.027, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.269757, "worst_return": -0.110062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.179119, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.159562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.408545, "worst_return": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.172875, "energy": 39.130044, "activity_lines": [ 278.733335, 271.36491, 261.533049, 251.541829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 221.800003, "volume": 116139557, "typical_volume": 94742004.55, "trend": 233.937001, "fair_value": 102.123719, "relative_strength": 16.94416, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.511344, "energy": 9.137826, "activity_lines": [ 256.893336, 263.326365, 258.799763, 250.966733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 193.0, "volume": 100927565, "typical_volume": 94602633.6, "trend": 236.107001, "fair_value": 102.91359, "relative_strength": 0.330036, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.843492, "energy": 28.117204, "activity_lines": [ 228.933335, 250.611456, 253.414335, 248.325636 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 230.5, "volume": 96309844, "typical_volume": 95638025.1, "trend": 239.224668, "fair_value": 103.960642, "relative_strength": 15.13682, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.139917, "energy": 27.508857, "activity_lines": [ 223.006668, 246.219274, 251.674239, 247.963894 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }