{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dde96ea0-f63c-4827-9137-415a01a8ac03", "symbol": "TMD", "name": "Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.559, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.25, "architecture_energy": 23.685, "architecture_maturity": 42.003, "architecture_confidence": 79.927, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.79, "rotation_up": 34.1, "upward_expansion": 61.61, "deceleration": 87.94, "rotation_down": 24.02, "downward_expansion": 13.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.533333, 26.568182, 26.295238, 26.021117 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.5, "trend_reference": 25.645155, "distance_from_trend": 0.033334, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.495856, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.177995, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.864309, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.067194, "excess_performance": -0.125131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033334, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033144, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.177995, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016036, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01121, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067194, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 75.133007, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8700, "relative_activity": 0.012341, "balance": 75.133007, "dry_up": 0.051847, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032656, "annualized_volatility": 0.079693, "from_high_reference": -0.027523, "from_low_reference": 0.17836 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.645155, "fair_value_reference": 22.495856, "structural_low": 24.362963, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.002083, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009546, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.038098, "worst_return": -0.033333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00172, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.057446, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.056277, "worst_return": -0.020408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.039598, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.066206, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056911, "worst_return": 0.004065, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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75.053108, "energy": 75.888863, "activity_lines": [ 26.716667, 26.409091, 25.955, 25.673837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.5, "volume": 36900, "typical_volume": 723604.35, "trend": 25.360216, "fair_value": 22.334006, "relative_strength": -9.363158, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.366503, "energy": 56.450242, "activity_lines": [ 26.683333, 26.477273, 26.034048, 25.753479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.25, "volume": 126400, "typical_volume": 728624.35, "trend": 25.423117, "fair_value": 22.372472, "relative_strength": -10.86044, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.238333, "energy": 38.105405, "activity_lines": [ 26.55, 26.477273, 26.083571, 25.810884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.5, "volume": 7100, "typical_volume": 725254.35, "trend": 25.494352, "fair_value": 22.41254, "relative_strength": -9.972962, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.92202, "energy": 30.393913, "activity_lines": [ 26.5, 26.509091, 26.152381, 25.88036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.75, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 706494.35, "trend": 25.57392, "fair_value": 22.455787, "relative_strength": -7.831126, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.291953, "energy": 28.004357, "activity_lines": [ 26.566667, 26.568182, 26.239286, 25.96137 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.5, "volume": 8700, "typical_volume": 704964.35, "trend": 25.645155, "fair_value": 22.495856, "relative_strength": -7.864309, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.249919, "energy": 23.684893, "activity_lines": [ 26.533333, 26.568182, 26.295238, 26.021117 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }