{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dde9c2fd-7439-4507-9a30-fa1c1c1e169e", "symbol": "RKT", "name": "Rocket Companies\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.409, "architecture_energy": 37.939, "architecture_maturity": 51.325, "architecture_confidence": 88.747, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.98, "rotation_up": 17.37, "upward_expansion": 7.8, "deceleration": 42.4, "rotation_down": 51.1, "downward_expansion": 74.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.521333, 13.940364, 14.134095, 14.50929 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.72, "trend_reference": 15.530333, "distance_from_trend": -0.116568, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.132119, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029162, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.017672, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.273305, "excess_performance": -0.39893, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116568, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097825, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029162, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172742, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105645, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273305, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.738574, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145901523, "relative_activity": 1.08703, "balance": 1.738574, "dry_up": 1.115475, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131139, "annualized_volatility": 0.569186, "from_high_reference": -0.436782, "from_low_reference": 0.127362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.530333, "fair_value_reference": 14.132119, "structural_low": 12.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.027941, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008421, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.467072, "worst_return": -0.197234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.173478, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.147927, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.449595, "worst_return": -0.284181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.393047, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.295262, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.541136, "worst_return": -0.046751, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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14.208, 14.218364, 14.339333, 14.851957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.9, "volume": 158448985, "typical_volume": 132872734.95, "trend": 15.849333, "fair_value": 14.115208, "relative_strength": -30.42814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.682958, "energy": 35.270907, "activity_lines": [ 13.658, 13.996727, 14.194714, 14.646667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.72, "volume": 145901523, "typical_volume": 134220299.2, "trend": 15.530333, "fair_value": 14.132119, "relative_strength": -28.017672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.409211, "energy": 37.938982, "activity_lines": [ 13.521333, 13.940364, 14.134095, 14.50929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }