{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ddec34aa-a92f-4a76-93f2-f06ac8a09d91", "symbol": "900940", "name": "Greattown Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.694, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.941, "architecture_energy": 28.378, "architecture_maturity": 32.877, "architecture_confidence": 57.905, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.13, "rotation_up": 23.92, "upward_expansion": 14.85, "deceleration": 61.4, "rotation_down": 39.27, "downward_expansion": 64.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.216133, 0.215455, 0.219576, 0.223301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.218, "trend_reference": 0.2283, "distance_from_trend": -0.045116, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.226601, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037958, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.877732, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.102881, "excess_performance": -0.059677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045116, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.037958, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093238, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038777, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.005296, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 500003, "relative_activity": 0.717624, "balance": 1.005296, "dry_up": 0.921773, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045166, "annualized_volatility": 0.174211, "from_high_reference": -0.155039, "from_low_reference": 0.05314 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2283, "fair_value_reference": 0.226601, "structural_low": 0.207, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": 0.002408, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.281105, "worst_return": -0.135457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.019396, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.00461, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.209907, "worst_return": -0.272413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019606, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.014509, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.603421, "worst_return": -0.202847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 0.228133, "fair_value": 0.226594, "relative_strength": -2.741553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.943655, "energy": 53.985433, "activity_lines": [ 0.213667, 0.215745, 0.222014, 0.225578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.212, "volume": 371116, "typical_volume": 657249.25, "trend": 0.228033, "fair_value": 0.226598, "relative_strength": -3.822891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.177927, "energy": 55.827395, "activity_lines": [ 0.212867, 0.214564, 0.22069, 0.224538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.219, "volume": 1075833, "typical_volume": 689960.0, "trend": 0.228133, "fair_value": 0.22664, "relative_strength": -0.953804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.065411, "energy": 36.963553, "activity_lines": [ 0.214867, 0.215055, 0.220148, 0.223955 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.218, "volume": 500003, "typical_volume": 696747.5, "trend": 0.2283, "fair_value": 0.226601, "relative_strength": -3.877732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.941081, "energy": 28.378087, "activity_lines": [ 0.216133, 0.215455, 0.219576, 0.223301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }