{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ddf17a3c-5bdd-4b8c-a399-9df0afd5b3ea", "symbol": "3268", "name": "Higher Way Electronic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 92.169, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.905, "architecture_energy": 20.919, "architecture_maturity": 35.573, "architecture_confidence": 76.864, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.68, "rotation_up": 29.73, "upward_expansion": 58.92, "deceleration": 88.39, "rotation_down": 24.12, "downward_expansion": 13.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.273334, 20.533637, 19.950714, 19.073871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.6, "trend_reference": 18.08, "distance_from_trend": 0.084071, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.422436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.125876, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.551647, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.195122, "excess_performance": -0.24625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084071, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058238, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.125876, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106822, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195122, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.28343, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 357204, "relative_activity": 0.256548, "balance": 2.28343, "dry_up": 0.401399, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131476, "annualized_volatility": 0.442675, "from_high_reference": -0.181628, "from_low_reference": 0.380282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.08, "fair_value_reference": 22.422436, "structural_low": 14.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.103306, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.014642, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.399594, "worst_return": -0.102041, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.052856, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.084911, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.123967, "worst_return": -0.018256, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.103448, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.189951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103448, "worst_return": 0.103448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036145, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084469, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086956, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096774, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 21.299999, "volume": 141000, "typical_volume": 239250.0, "trend": 21.997909, "fair_value": 22.699593, "relative_strength": -11.671652, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", 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21.85, "volume": 3232947, "typical_volume": 1105487.05, "trend": 17.318333, "fair_value": 22.491958, "relative_strength": -21.911449, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.487037, "energy": 76.182292, "activity_lines": [ 20.223333, 19.205454, 17.929762, 17.536559 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 20.5, "volume": 2666496, "typical_volume": 1214251.0, "trend": 17.403333, "fair_value": 22.481983, "relative_strength": -22.653522, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.218531, "energy": 69.752704, "activity_lines": [ 20.546667, 19.557273, 18.249286, 17.741828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.6, "volume": 1826208, "typical_volume": 1293110.65, "trend": 17.553333, "fair_value": 22.484537, "relative_strength": -17.744282, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.719285, "energy": 73.892505, "activity_lines": [ 21.376667, 20.229091, 18.750238, 18.077097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.950001, "volume": 595021, "typical_volume": 1315155.55, "trend": 17.64, "fair_value": 22.47465, "relative_strength": -20.511339, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.330202, "energy": 58.530642, "activity_lines": [ 21.35, 20.518182, 19.064524, 18.296237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.299999, "volume": 733139, "typical_volume": 1337206.95, "trend": 17.688333, "fair_value": 22.454186, "relative_strength": -21.336217, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.665763, "energy": 39.019289, "activity_lines": [ 20.73, 20.439091, 19.196905, 18.403333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.950001, "volume": 677002, "typical_volume": 1361097.15, "trend": 17.753333, "fair_value": 22.440064, "relative_strength": -19.684445, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.407604, "energy": 29.52418, "activity_lines": [ 20.366667, 20.460909, 19.375952, 18.549247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.700001, "volume": 884101, "typical_volume": 1386849.3, "trend": 17.878333, "fair_value": 22.436538, "relative_strength": -10.814362, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.06609, "energy": 28.153014, "activity_lines": [ 20.713334, 20.752728, 19.700714, 18.803871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.450001, "volume": 317239, "typical_volume": 1388641.85, "trend": 17.986667, "fair_value": 22.43141, "relative_strength": -17.282385, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.77778, "energy": 22.501262, "activity_lines": [ 20.563334, 20.742728, 19.878572, 18.969785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.6, "volume": 357204, "typical_volume": 1392345.8, "trend": 18.08, "fair_value": 22.422436, "relative_strength": -22.551647, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.904509, "energy": 20.91904, "activity_lines": [ 20.273334, 20.533637, 19.950714, 19.073871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }