{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ddfdebb5-be9a-43b4-95c5-cbbad2fba4f9", "symbol": "CIEINDIA", "name": "CIE Automotive India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.064, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.168, "architecture_energy": 64.959, "architecture_maturity": 8.754, "architecture_confidence": 70.75, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.99, "rotation_up": 21.56, "upward_expansion": 26.66, "deceleration": 37.6, "rotation_down": 68.18, "downward_expansion": 58.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 422.656669, 439.636363, 449.294756, 451.215974 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 410.5, "trend_reference": 448.354028, "distance_from_trend": -0.084429, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 454.570714, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.09695, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.29721, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023677, "excess_performance": 0.020032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084429, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031301, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.09695, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136342, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042972, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023677, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.174314, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1873634, "relative_activity": 0.906356, "balance": 0.174314, "dry_up": 1.501125, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057631, "annualized_volatility": 0.293034, "from_high_reference": -0.208362, "from_low_reference": 0.092631 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 448.354028, "fair_value_reference": 454.570714, "structural_low": 401.899994, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025424, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.007625, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.043419, "worst_return": -0.097139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009144, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053286, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084746, "worst_return": -0.244663, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028789, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154946, "worst_return": -0.196388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016527, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101948, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045564, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044501, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091703, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.023013, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09341, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 464.500946, "volume": 1549463, "typical_volume": 5986853.35, "trend": 420.44136, "fair_value": 248.872436, "relative_strength": 19.840764, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.939553, 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455.657408, "relative_strength": 10.429063, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.636343, "energy": 37.304111, "activity_lines": [ 466.553325, 461.83454, 461.581482, 456.545083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 473.700012, "volume": 820767, "typical_volume": 1671931.75, "trend": 447.640149, "fair_value": 455.661847, "relative_strength": 11.762567, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.646454, "energy": 43.68066, "activity_lines": [ 469.696663, 464.205452, 462.890723, 458.401291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 413.75, "volume": 8179554, "typical_volume": 2020648.75, "trend": 448.509265, "fair_value": 455.396595, "relative_strength": -0.162888, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.00556, "energy": 9.057321, "activity_lines": [ 451.323332, 455.697271, 458.448845, 456.21483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 408.600006, "volume": 1538642, "typical_volume": 2049669.45, "trend": 448.073014, "fair_value": 454.96062, "relative_strength": -3.94867, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.255465, "energy": 48.913256, "activity_lines": [ 434.583335, 447.107272, 453.724227, 453.640039 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 410.5, "volume": 1873634, "typical_volume": 2067215.55, "trend": 448.354028, "fair_value": 454.570714, "relative_strength": -4.29721, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.167829, "energy": 64.958572, "activity_lines": [ 422.656669, 439.636363, 449.294756, 451.215974 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }