{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de000382-46a7-4e13-89ad-3765cdafba60", "symbol": "SURANAT&P", "name": "Surana Telecom and Power Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.748, "architecture_energy": 18.285, "architecture_maturity": 36.218, "architecture_confidence": 57.701, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.31, "rotation_up": 18.47, "upward_expansion": 16.15, "deceleration": 64.14, "rotation_down": 56.47, "downward_expansion": 41.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.028, 18.425454, 18.468762, 18.321935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.84, "trend_reference": 18.187, "distance_from_trend": -0.01908, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.740385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.956628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013061, "excess_performance": 0.05677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01908, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030578, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048045, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10955, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069566, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080866, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013061, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.831752, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 250941, "relative_activity": 0.813983, "balance": 0.831752, "dry_up": 0.860248, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073991, "annualized_volatility": 0.267321, "from_high_reference": -0.333831, "from_low_reference": 0.150968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.187, "fair_value_reference": 18.740385, "structural_low": 15.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.012862, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.003074, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.126087, "worst_return": -0.177433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.046744, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.069193, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.216608, "worst_return": -0.138243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013889, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.148798, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.708995, "worst_return": -0.183032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.132644, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.233499, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.322751, "worst_return": -0.157407, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.321101, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006192, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.179245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.200642, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.123926, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.155734, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163652, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.126257, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053527, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148438, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.187441, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043309, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.065479, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.8, "volume": 479469, "typical_volume": 552410.35, "trend": 9.461667, "fair_value": 8.68141, "relative_strength": -10.387971, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.539046, "energy": 37.742358, "activity_lines": [ 19.194666, 18.879272, 18.563428, 18.413871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.98, "volume": 227376, "typical_volume": 322502.3, "trend": 18.403333, "fair_value": 18.583077, "relative_strength": -5.399059, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.182927, "energy": 16.206174, "activity_lines": [ 18.825999, 18.746909, 18.540809, 18.381914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.25, "volume": 355278, "typical_volume": 320721.9, "trend": 18.313333, "fair_value": 18.639167, "relative_strength": -1.691408, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.678046, "energy": 12.79263, "activity_lines": [ 18.565333, 18.683818, 18.543667, 18.372021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.950001, "volume": 227221, "typical_volume": 310722.9, "trend": 18.253, "fair_value": 18.691731, "relative_strength": -5.696302, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.567022, "energy": 15.370153, "activity_lines": [ 18.278, 18.564545, 18.513143, 18.348581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.84, "volume": 250941, "typical_volume": 308287.9, "trend": 18.187, "fair_value": 18.740385, "relative_strength": -6.956628, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.747645, "energy": 18.284538, "activity_lines": [ 18.028, 18.425454, 18.468762, 18.321935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }