{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de08ec88-dc14-4fa0-b4d4-ecadbc8013a1", "symbol": "NOKIA-SEK", "name": "Nokia Oyj", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.313, "architecture_energy": 45.5, "architecture_maturity": 46.522, "architecture_confidence": 54.881, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.4, "rotation_up": 14.01, "upward_expansion": 19.6, "deceleration": 66.39, "rotation_down": 71.66, "downward_expansion": 46.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.11155, 104.252975, 113.100314, 107.000731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 89.360001, "trend_reference": 96.088741, "distance_from_trend": -0.070026, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.805397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.630496, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.0173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.424876, "excess_performance": 0.363382, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070026, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.236277, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.630496, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.81624, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040173, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.78307, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.424876, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.483382, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10104737, "relative_activity": 2.083064, "balance": 0.483382, "dry_up": 1.777988, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168529, "annualized_volatility": 0.542359, "from_high_reference": -0.418797, "from_low_reference": 1.278254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.088741, "fair_value_reference": 54.805397, "structural_low": 61.494731, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.028321, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.023903, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.096606, "worst_return": -0.252659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.108347, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.072742, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.261619, "worst_return": -0.058416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041242, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.129664, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.196086, "worst_return": -0.006126, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 90.441755, "volume": 6188601, "typical_volume": 4211319.55, "trend": 94.184343, "fair_value": 54.202792, "relative_strength": 10.915426, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.656545, "energy": 28.105071, "activity_lines": [ 104.736441, 116.511363, 117.203005, 107.811777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 87.360001, "volume": 13324354, "typical_volume": 4588034.6, "trend": 95.106872, "fair_value": 54.499004, "relative_strength": 4.657534, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -18.3323, "energy": 37.577705, "activity_lines": [ 96.798063, 109.686351, 115.07945, 107.371497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.360001, "volume": 10104737, "typical_volume": 4850900.0, "trend": 96.088741, "fair_value": 54.805397, "relative_strength": 4.0173, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.313171, "energy": 45.499607, "activity_lines": [ 92.11155, 104.252975, 113.100314, 107.000731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }