{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de10721f-891a-4302-87a7-1295410d5d21", "symbol": "600179", "name": "Antong Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.933, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.285, "architecture_energy": 49.22, "architecture_maturity": 9.717, "architecture_confidence": 75.155, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.31, "rotation_up": 9.96, "upward_expansion": 7.68, "deceleration": 42.5, "rotation_down": 63.75, "downward_expansion": 78.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.274667, 4.384364, 4.409238, 4.450215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.24, "trend_reference": 4.566333, "distance_from_trend": -0.071465, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.18609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.330785, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.937966, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.160396, "excess_performance": -0.117192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071465, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.330785, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102805, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01938, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037868, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160396, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575632, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129264134, "relative_activity": 0.794362, "balance": 0.575632, "dry_up": 0.992949, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068759, "annualized_volatility": 0.249223, "from_high_reference": -0.352672, "from_low_reference": 0.354633 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.566333, "fair_value_reference": 3.18609, "structural_low": 4.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 9.3e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020375, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.146919, "worst_return": -0.091549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.043258, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010883, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.464455, "worst_return": -0.131274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030033, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019315, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.35545, "worst_return": -0.156522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17.216196, "activity_lines": [ 4.631333, 4.544364, 4.482476, 4.566516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.5, "volume": 296367315, "typical_volume": 212152123.05, "trend": 4.675667, "fair_value": 3.149744, "relative_strength": 4.401849, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.175311, "energy": 13.172855, "activity_lines": [ 4.591333, 4.550909, 4.481905, 4.55572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.26, "volume": 177679752, "typical_volume": 201793413.95, "trend": 4.679, "fair_value": 3.159167, "relative_strength": 4.362202, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.035711, "energy": 18.462278, "activity_lines": [ 4.477333, 4.508545, 4.460333, 4.528903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.14, "volume": 184939983, "typical_volume": 172851758.4, "trend": 4.681667, "fair_value": 3.167628, "relative_strength": -0.301627, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.402109, "energy": 35.73942, "activity_lines": [ 4.343333, 4.446727, 4.43081, 4.494129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.37, "volume": 154434867, "typical_volume": 167065426.4, "trend": 4.609, "fair_value": 3.1775, "relative_strength": 4.255364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.616884, "energy": 32.377363, "activity_lines": [ 4.318667, 4.427091, 4.425857, 4.474022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.24, "volume": 129264134, "typical_volume": 162727039.2, "trend": 4.566333, "fair_value": 3.18609, "relative_strength": -1.937966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.285056, "energy": 49.220318, "activity_lines": [ 4.274667, 4.384364, 4.409238, 4.450215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }