{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de1732f1-48ac-4b94-b27f-87ec81ab91cb", "symbol": "1358", "name": "PW Medtech Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-28", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.785, "architecture_energy": 94.228, "architecture_maturity": 79.123, "architecture_confidence": 79.656, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.02, "upward_expansion": 21.98, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 88.03, "downward_expansion": 99.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.929, 0.977259, 1.038826, 1.070064 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.91, "trend_reference": 1.122121, "distance_from_trend": -0.189036, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.01264, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.101359, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.5889, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.320896, "excess_performance": -0.281627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189036, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079458, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.101359, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28031, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255889, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.320896, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.196588, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1623000, "relative_activity": 0.667572, "balance": 0.196588, "dry_up": 1.042695, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034925, "annualized_volatility": 0.346865, "from_high_reference": -0.424962, "from_low_reference": 0.04 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.122121, "fair_value_reference": 1.01264, "structural_low": 0.875, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.025529, "positive_rate": 0.321429, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.009029, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.156864, "worst_return": -0.223881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.043651, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.068361, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.494911, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.120349, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024412, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.589526, "worst_return": -0.27381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.21582, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026786, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010204, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": 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1.137275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.01, "volume": 1496000, "typical_volume": 2560650.0, "trend": 1.168621, "fair_value": 1.002548, "relative_strength": -20.73538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.302898, "energy": 97.257484, "activity_lines": [ 1.048667, 1.075716, 1.103419, 1.126418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.01, "volume": 530000, "typical_volume": 2434650.0, "trend": 1.159287, "fair_value": 1.005984, "relative_strength": -19.548544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.968825, "energy": 95.874982, "activity_lines": [ 1.031333, 1.060002, 1.093949, 1.116184 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.905, "volume": 6705000, "typical_volume": 2677350.0, "trend": 1.146121, "fair_value": 1.008645, "relative_strength": -25.812447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -99.019982, "energy": 99.387646, "activity_lines": [ 0.985, 1.027536, 1.074623, 1.099778 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.91, "volume": 1282000, "typical_volume": 2555850.0, "trend": 1.134454, "fair_value": 1.01072, "relative_strength": -27.393354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.141005, "energy": 97.866702, "activity_lines": [ 0.952, 1.000408, 1.05632, 1.084545 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 0.91, "volume": 1623000, "typical_volume": 2431200.0, "trend": 1.122121, "fair_value": 1.01264, "relative_strength": -25.5889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.784541, "energy": 94.227709, "activity_lines": [ 0.929, 0.977259, 1.038826, 1.070064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }