{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de1835c9-7932-459f-a60d-12917e81942b", "symbol": "TSPY", "name": "TAPPALPHA S&P 500 GROWTH & DAILY INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.354, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.961, "architecture_energy": 40.866, "architecture_maturity": 24.924, "architecture_confidence": 63.144, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.24, "rotation_up": 45.99, "upward_expansion": 75.83, "deceleration": 64.3, "rotation_down": 25.41, "downward_expansion": 4.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.259645, 25.169301, 25.040092, 24.702184 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.8, "trend_reference": 24.358563, "distance_from_trend": 0.059176, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.036399, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17079, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.257605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070315, "excess_performance": -0.117139, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059176, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021004, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17079, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016621, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052576, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037465, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070315, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.481622, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1323974, "relative_activity": 1.161848, "balance": 2.481622, "dry_up": 0.889891, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024381, "annualized_volatility": 0.13054, "from_high_reference": -0.003861, "from_low_reference": 0.188666 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.358563, "fair_value_reference": 22.036399, "structural_low": 21.883936, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019756, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103613, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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24.552811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.08119, "volume": 1476134, "typical_volume": 1137532.35, "trend": 24.303928, "fair_value": 21.999859, "relative_strength": -3.332279, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.746683, "energy": 25.537387, "activity_lines": [ 25.00323, 25.040771, 24.918008, 24.605663 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.8, "volume": 1323974, "typical_volume": 1139541.9, "trend": 24.358563, "fair_value": 22.036399, "relative_strength": -5.257605, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.960938, "energy": 40.865623, "activity_lines": [ 25.259645, 25.169301, 25.040092, 24.702184 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }