{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de19c0e6-0450-4325-9e55-4a7d07e4ceda", "symbol": "TTGT", "name": "TechTarget, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.1, "architecture_energy": 22.4, "architecture_maturity": 38.904, "architecture_confidence": 70.713, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.88, "rotation_up": 24.04, "upward_expansion": 15.54, "deceleration": 59.6, "rotation_down": 42.01, "downward_expansion": 65.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.906, 3.851636, 4.1455, 4.23429 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.84, "trend_reference": 4.410833, "distance_from_trend": -0.129416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.892102, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.513438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.047344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.258687, "excess_performance": -0.446141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09685, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.513438, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.320473, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198158, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.258687, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.34641, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2228481, "relative_activity": 0.986572, "balance": 0.34641, "dry_up": 0.945939, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.201122, "annualized_volatility": 0.909102, "from_high_reference": -0.462937, "from_low_reference": 0.139466 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.410833, "fair_value_reference": 7.892102, "structural_low": 3.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.095745, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.064196, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.095745, "worst_return": -0.095745, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021277, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 25.54, "volume": 1221821, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 21.33, "volume": 1347490, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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4.130182, 4.366095, 4.461828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.79, "volume": 1210517, "typical_volume": 2393250.4, "trend": 4.607167, "fair_value": 8.083988, "relative_strength": -37.590084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.232139, "energy": 45.888198, "activity_lines": [ 3.808667, 3.995091, 4.312976, 4.405387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.72, "volume": 1174418, "typical_volume": 2281625.5, "trend": 4.545833, "fair_value": 8.032647, "relative_strength": -35.030048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.336539, "energy": 37.526381, "activity_lines": [ 3.796, 3.883091, 4.257857, 4.348151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.4, "volume": 2394958, "typical_volume": 2275620.4, "trend": 4.485833, "fair_value": 7.978779, "relative_strength": -38.180328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.882484, "energy": 41.376653, "activity_lines": [ 3.67, 3.756182, 4.171262, 4.274226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.49, "volume": 2748934, "typical_volume": 2243699.2, "trend": 4.463167, "fair_value": 7.938678, "relative_strength": -17.662511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.696412, "energy": 21.396762, "activity_lines": [ 3.920667, 3.86, 4.190571, 4.274495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.84, "volume": 2228481, "typical_volume": 2258812.35, "trend": 4.410833, "fair_value": 7.892102, "relative_strength": -32.047344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.10017, "energy": 22.399672, "activity_lines": [ 3.906, 3.851636, 4.1455, 4.23429 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }