{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de1a7be8-ab8d-43d6-859f-f3e89571b2b3", "symbol": "WMG", "name": "Western Mines Group Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.16, "architecture_energy": 38.214, "architecture_maturity": 55.82, "architecture_confidence": 94.043, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.48, "rotation_up": 18.37, "upward_expansion": 3.86, "deceleration": 48.2, "rotation_down": 55.1, "downward_expansion": 77.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.178333, 0.181636, 0.187619, 0.192495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.17, "trend_reference": 0.2055, "distance_from_trend": -0.172749, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.225455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.24597, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.755771, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.276596, "excess_performance": -0.340301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172749, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069434, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.24597, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257558, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276596, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.320498, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 359931, "relative_activity": 0.721857, "balance": 0.320498, "dry_up": 0.593545, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135747, "annualized_volatility": 0.684263, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.096774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2055, "fair_value_reference": 0.225455, "structural_low": 0.155, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.061111, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.089106, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 1.5625, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.121951, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.1606, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.666667, "worst_return": -0.395833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.070299, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.084705, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.041667, "worst_return": -0.489362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.291667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.651384, "energy": 57.335873, "activity_lines": [ 0.178667, 0.184273, 0.190643, 0.198129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.185, "volume": 378192, "typical_volume": 512931.6, "trend": 0.210833, "fair_value": 0.229237, "relative_strength": -15.617728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.578311, "energy": 46.983551, "activity_lines": [ 0.179, 0.184, 0.189881, 0.196366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.19, "volume": 94665, "typical_volume": 496245.6, "trend": 0.209167, "fair_value": 0.227474, "relative_strength": -14.958877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.770953, "energy": 36.334949, "activity_lines": [ 0.182, 0.184818, 0.18969, 0.195022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.17, "volume": 359931, "typical_volume": 498618.15, "trend": 0.2055, "fair_value": 0.225455, "relative_strength": -25.755771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.160443, "energy": 38.214244, "activity_lines": [ 0.178333, 0.181636, 0.187619, 0.192495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }