{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de1e17de-9458-4ce9-9871-76e9820df89a", "symbol": "EMPAB", "name": "UBS MSCI EM Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.229, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.022, "architecture_energy": 24.523, "architecture_maturity": 62.569, "architecture_confidence": 80.79, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.85, "rotation_up": 14.01, "upward_expansion": 47.08, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 48.17, "downward_expansion": 32.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.302267, 15.622473, 15.658914, 15.350426 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.228, "trend_reference": 14.935, "distance_from_trend": 0.019618, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.620833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.310405, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.110874, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083227, "excess_performance": -0.087665, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019618, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067518, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.310405, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114178, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061109, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083227, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.716718, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.716718, "dry_up": 0.725299, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031349, "annualized_volatility": 0.222518, "from_high_reference": -0.090974, "from_low_reference": 0.302206 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.935, "fair_value_reference": 11.620833, "structural_low": 13.422, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.176768, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132904, "worst_return": 0.132904, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037142, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024018, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003283, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010243, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002123, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.143414, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069047, 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"fair_value": 11.51082, "relative_strength": -3.254922, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.79022, "energy": 29.253822, "activity_lines": [ 15.8544, 16.010145, 15.648866, 15.260292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.356, "volume": 740, "typical_volume": 1370.95, "trend": 14.8064, "fair_value": 11.548038, "relative_strength": -1.785544, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.218573, "energy": 27.774496, "activity_lines": [ 15.6152, 15.890836, 15.666771, 15.300942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.228, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1329.1, "trend": 14.8826, "fair_value": 11.584436, "relative_strength": -3.304249, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.066178, "energy": 25.323924, "activity_lines": [ 15.424267, 15.756363, 15.665428, 15.328142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.228, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1008.55, "trend": 14.935, "fair_value": 11.620833, "relative_strength": -6.110874, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.021579, "energy": 24.523423, "activity_lines": [ 15.302267, 15.622473, 15.658914, 15.350426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }