{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de2546fe-845d-4e18-af8e-a7717288db36", "symbol": "LWSA3", "name": "Locaweb Servi\u00e7os de Internet S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 51.983, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.083, "architecture_energy": 19.254, "architecture_maturity": 13.48, "architecture_confidence": 59.393, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.74, "rotation_up": 14.56, "upward_expansion": 20.4, "deceleration": 60.25, "rotation_down": 51.47, "downward_expansion": 58.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.797333, 3.866545, 3.852762, 3.842523 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.88, "trend_reference": 3.876675, "distance_from_trend": 0.000858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.128907, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060284, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.955761, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.067759, "excess_performance": -0.01071, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000858, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011597, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060284, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056453, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049558, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093762, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067759, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.651277, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9738400, "relative_activity": 0.73064, "balance": 0.651277, "dry_up": 0.892313, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069389, "annualized_volatility": 0.358928, "from_high_reference": -0.192302, "from_low_reference": 0.182927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.876675, "fair_value_reference": 4.128907, "structural_low": 3.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.033203, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.013613, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.063158, "worst_return": -0.195206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.154259, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.069865, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.01385, "worst_return": -0.306507, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.35883, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.352591, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.263699, "worst_return": -0.603219, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.564154, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.544191, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.527905, "worst_return": -0.600402, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.097912, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155807, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05569, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066313, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014156, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106965, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085359, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00554, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": 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4.182515, "relative_strength": -5.983197, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.867338, "energy": 37.28247, "activity_lines": [ 4.019333, 3.931636, 3.882476, 3.873247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.6, "volume": 15055000, "typical_volume": 14632145.0, "trend": 3.890113, "fair_value": 4.163908, "relative_strength": -13.430727, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.723289, "energy": 11.850548, "activity_lines": [ 3.884667, 3.884364, 3.859667, 3.853788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.72, "volume": 12523500, "typical_volume": 13843760.0, "trend": 3.884502, "fair_value": 4.14613, "relative_strength": -12.045885, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.67172, "energy": 18.077167, "activity_lines": [ 3.8, 3.861455, 3.848619, 3.842813 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.88, "volume": 9738400, "typical_volume": 13328590.0, "trend": 3.876675, "fair_value": 4.128907, "relative_strength": -4.955761, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.082717, "energy": 19.253765, "activity_lines": [ 3.797333, 3.866545, 3.852762, 3.842523 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }