{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de29aa6d-6c11-4670-ae58-f8849e5b3eb7", "symbol": "LIDO", "name": "21Shares Lido DAO ETP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.019, "architecture_energy": 27.024, "architecture_maturity": 89.06, "architecture_confidence": 77.867, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.09, "rotation_up": 59.6, "upward_expansion": 29.24, "deceleration": 38.31, "rotation_down": 21.1, "downward_expansion": 29.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.267393, 1.184564, 1.190669, 1.20166 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.0375, "trend_reference": 1.26729, "distance_from_trend": -0.181324, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.429952, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.80893, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.24751, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.180295, "excess_performance": -0.233607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239148, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.80893, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034401, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.552475, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039845, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180295, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771241, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2611453, "relative_activity": 6.871286, "balance": 0.771241, "dry_up": 2.784489, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159095, "annualized_volatility": 0.934397, "from_high_reference": -0.820929, "from_low_reference": 0.157795 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.26729, "fair_value_reference": 5.429952, "structural_low": 0.8961, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.006248, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019819, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.520519, "worst_return": -0.361934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.174138, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.210665, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.418866, "worst_return": -0.504936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.226667, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.294007, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.119604, "worst_return": -0.572938, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 1.269887, 1.157995, 1.191556, 1.217135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.3709, "volume": 40526, "typical_volume": 250097.4, "trend": 1.30951, "fair_value": 5.471763, "relative_strength": -41.197671, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.224444, "energy": 36.234736, "activity_lines": [ 1.340033, 1.201147, 1.20758, 1.219209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.0375, "volume": 2611453, "typical_volume": 380053.0, "trend": 1.26729, "fair_value": 5.429952, "relative_strength": -55.24751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.019418, "energy": 27.023538, "activity_lines": [ 1.267393, 1.184564, 1.190669, 1.20166 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }