{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de304869-8b7b-4c9e-8ffd-b6817942bbae", "symbol": "688607", "name": "CareRay Digital Medical Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.759, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.949, "architecture_energy": 68.846, "architecture_maturity": 14.571, "architecture_confidence": 67.801, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.73, "rotation_up": 11.12, "upward_expansion": 14.51, "deceleration": 39.92, "rotation_down": 73.63, "downward_expansion": 90.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.534, 44.116546, 50.904286, 53.392215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.0, "trend_reference": 55.308333, "distance_from_trend": -0.132138, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.767262, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.862829, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.979836, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.245046, "excess_performance": -0.201842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132138, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077939, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.862829, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.092976, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.069798, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.623189, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.245046, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648261, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20765749, "relative_activity": 1.962872, "balance": 0.648261, "dry_up": 1.379542, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167468, "annualized_volatility": 0.675744, "from_high_reference": -0.342466, "from_low_reference": 0.860465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.308333, "fair_value_reference": 25.767262, "structural_low": 32.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.002211, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.013461, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.289941, "worst_return": -0.155308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059917, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.069237, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.388686, "worst_return": -0.190835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014262, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038774, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.359489, "worst_return": -0.189046, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -18.924512, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.688621, "energy": 88.316574, "activity_lines": [ 41.004667, 46.424727, 53.352666, 54.922817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.68, "volume": 13529050, "typical_volume": 9941119.85, "trend": 55.135, "fair_value": 25.58787, "relative_strength": -10.799818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.54094, "energy": 83.163089, "activity_lines": [ 39.448667, 44.161455, 51.647, 53.852537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.0, "volume": 20765749, "typical_volume": 10579266.0, "trend": 55.308333, "fair_value": 25.767262, "relative_strength": 6.979836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.948602, "energy": 68.84608, "activity_lines": [ 41.534, 44.116546, 50.904286, 53.392215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }