{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de32197a-b489-4d80-adf6-7600e4b83411", "symbol": "ICG", "name": "Intchains Group Limited American Depositary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.413, "architecture_energy": 28.465, "architecture_maturity": 89.174, "architecture_confidence": 86.165, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.19, "rotation_up": 26.16, "upward_expansion": 15.26, "deceleration": 42.51, "rotation_down": 31.31, "downward_expansion": 60.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.83854, 0.818076, 0.89742, 1.005192 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.872, "trend_reference": 1.197747, "distance_from_trend": -0.271966, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.590031, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.810023, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.236164, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.480952, "excess_performance": -0.668406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.271966, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.810023, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056036, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.462362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.480952, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.729815, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 177799, "relative_activity": 0.131698, "balance": 0.729815, "dry_up": 0.251005, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.245981, "annualized_volatility": 0.821611, "from_high_reference": -0.688494, "from_low_reference": 0.453333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.197747, "fair_value_reference": 4.590031, "structural_low": 0.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.023256, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.102867, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.731707, "worst_return": -0.346299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.065116, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.185229, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.065421, "worst_return": -0.418417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.210843, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.309209, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.008955, "worst_return": -0.608645, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.822493, 0.803527, 0.933933, 1.057161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.815, "volume": 354077, "typical_volume": 1347118.35, "trend": 1.22868, "fair_value": 4.628672, "relative_strength": -48.599678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.775463, "energy": 30.042778, "activity_lines": [ 0.82568, 0.804484, 0.911955, 1.028203 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.872, "volume": 177799, "typical_volume": 1350055.55, "trend": 1.197747, "fair_value": 4.590031, "relative_strength": -46.236164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.412987, "energy": 28.464583, "activity_lines": [ 0.83854, 0.818076, 0.89742, 1.005192 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }