{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de343083-2ab4-47eb-b854-3e7b8817302d", "symbol": "600389", "name": "Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.843, "architecture_energy": 56.246, "architecture_maturity": 61.482, "architecture_confidence": 91.642, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.63, "rotation_up": 27.77, "upward_expansion": 10.29, "deceleration": 60.37, "rotation_down": 49.04, "downward_expansion": 81.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.743333, 19.798182, 22.054178, 23.735965 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.65, "trend_reference": 25.282721, "distance_from_trend": -0.183237, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.784996, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.099282, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.88857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2469, "excess_performance": -0.203696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183237, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038706, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.099282, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.431917, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158886, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2469, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.427883, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60135000, "relative_activity": 1.411081, "balance": 0.427883, "dry_up": 1.774958, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102526, "annualized_volatility": 0.520276, "from_high_reference": -0.37988, "from_low_reference": 0.236527 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.282721, "fair_value_reference": 18.784996, "structural_low": 16.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.044468, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.044966, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.256874, "worst_return": -0.158046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.060489, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.004489, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.213976, "worst_return": -0.331084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.112394, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.092038, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.149975, "worst_return": -0.198008, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 44757059.2, "trend": 25.803054, "fair_value": 18.870477, "relative_strength": -28.695041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.554458, "energy": 94.912177, "activity_lines": [ 18.581334, 20.458164, 23.473439, 24.791868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.700001, "volume": 72095991, "typical_volume": 44272752.9, "trend": 25.616388, "fair_value": 18.841725, "relative_strength": -21.680952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.059968, "energy": 87.473898, "activity_lines": [ 18.373334, 19.855961, 22.807003, 24.333606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.139999, "volume": 85384451, "typical_volume": 43524015.35, "trend": 25.437054, "fair_value": 18.820954, "relative_strength": -11.681288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.405445, "energy": 67.899059, "activity_lines": [ 19.185333, 19.831831, 22.429138, 24.044807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.65, "volume": 60135000, "typical_volume": 42616270.7, "trend": 25.282721, "fair_value": 18.784996, "relative_strength": -15.88857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.842835, "energy": 56.246328, "activity_lines": [ 19.743333, 19.798182, 22.054178, 23.735965 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }