{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de381165-64c6-404b-9737-5b89eac45c28", "symbol": "MCO", "name": "Moodys Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.016, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.413, "architecture_energy": 28.484, "architecture_maturity": 10.771, "architecture_confidence": 41.676, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.12, "rotation_up": 49.39, "upward_expansion": 47.62, "deceleration": 37.65, "rotation_down": 24.0, "downward_expansion": 10.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 481.718, 478.295818, 466.798389, 461.412234 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 477.75, "trend_reference": 461.75722, "distance_from_trend": 0.034635, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 440.015689, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085757, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.498894, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060699, "excess_performance": -0.064926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034635, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016597, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085757, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035663, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104989, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063852, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060699, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.85006, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3548798, "relative_activity": 0.730501, "balance": 0.85006, "dry_up": 0.91901, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057, "annualized_volatility": 0.306052, "from_high_reference": -0.122375, "from_low_reference": 0.193088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 461.75722, "fair_value_reference": 440.015689, "structural_low": 400.431358, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02023, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002396, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06954, "worst_return": -0.098427, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.046847, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.04005, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.066196, "worst_return": -0.114666, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.012436, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.033284, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137929, "worst_return": -0.025411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-8.141112, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.982639, "energy": 43.012103, "activity_lines": [ 473.177333, 462.807432, 454.781941, 456.248716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 510.86, "volume": 4315761, "typical_volume": 5338492.3, "trend": 465.619694, "fair_value": 437.308321, "relative_strength": -1.886267, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.31958, "energy": 65.563281, "activity_lines": [ 488.376, 472.796909, 460.471905, 459.189148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 471.5, "volume": 5471749, "typical_volume": 5187360.9, "trend": 464.081354, "fair_value": 438.119815, "relative_strength": -8.486324, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.45174, "energy": 57.616933, "activity_lines": [ 486.254, 474.527818, 462.244418, 459.568523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 478.38, "volume": 4522017, "typical_volume": 5020015.6, "trend": 463.471122, "fair_value": 439.059294, "relative_strength": -7.730173, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.321735, "energy": 48.869948, "activity_lines": [ 485.036667, 476.735091, 464.669023, 460.491016 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 477.75, "volume": 3548798, "typical_volume": 4858032.05, "trend": 461.75722, "fair_value": 440.015689, "relative_strength": -10.498894, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.412881, "energy": 28.484139, "activity_lines": [ 481.718, 478.295818, 466.798389, 461.412234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }