{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de414504-96a8-41ae-8ca5-6abd219a0ab4", "symbol": "M44U", "name": "Mapletree Logistics Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.422, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.185, "architecture_energy": 17.023, "architecture_maturity": 25.26, "architecture_confidence": 61.569, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.91, "rotation_up": 16.58, "upward_expansion": 13.33, "deceleration": 59.01, "rotation_down": 45.7, "downward_expansion": 61.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.201982, 1.205626, 1.202886, 1.205038 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.2, "trend_reference": 1.220186, "distance_from_trend": -0.016543, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.22456, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020056, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.675094, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.070105, "excess_performance": -0.22494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016543, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016202, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020056, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020547, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085286, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.908248, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90103900, "relative_activity": 1.308188, "balance": 0.908248, "dry_up": 1.312597, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033026, "annualized_volatility": 0.161926, "from_high_reference": -0.098706, "from_low_reference": 0.097895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.220186, "fair_value_reference": 1.22456, "structural_low": 1.123003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.005241, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.014456, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.114261, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.044583, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.002131, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.101376, "worst_return": -0.11331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.032873, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.054564, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.127033, "worst_return": -0.139051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.043781, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.159054, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.029682, "worst_return": -0.132004, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044643, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049749, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00813, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054499, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.192135, "volume": 67753300, "typical_volume": 68920046.0, "trend": 1.22866, "fair_value": 1.228553, "relative_strength": -16.366445, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.077501, "energy": 13.279003, "activity_lines": [ 1.206933, 1.206978, 1.201374, 1.209848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.182283, "volume": 86394000, "typical_volume": 67750246.0, "trend": 1.225956, "fair_value": 1.226868, "relative_strength": -17.910563, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.81026, "energy": 24.78918, "activity_lines": [ 1.19663, 1.203467, 1.200003, 1.206856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.221692, "volume": 117379049, "typical_volume": 68468148.45, "trend": 1.223918, "fair_value": 1.225864, "relative_strength": -15.474353, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.527953, "energy": 11.605979, "activity_lines": [ 1.202644, 1.206897, 1.202571, 1.206581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.2, "volume": 90103900, "typical_volume": 68876873.45, "trend": 1.220186, "fair_value": 1.22456, "relative_strength": -17.675094, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.1851, "energy": 17.022597, "activity_lines": [ 1.201982, 1.205626, 1.202886, 1.205038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }