{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de440449-07b9-413c-ac80-91832a581304", "symbol": "QDEV", "name": "State Street SPDR ETFs Europe I plc - SPDR S&P Developed Quality Aristocrats UCITSETFUSDUnh(Acc)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.024, "architecture_energy": 72.359, "architecture_maturity": 33.461, "architecture_confidence": 85.052, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.26, "rotation_up": 68.41, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 57.18, "rotation_down": 23.29, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.190133, 11.089127, 10.846286, 10.602069 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.442, "trend_reference": 10.355733, "distance_from_trend": 0.104895, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.827276, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16431, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.096672, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.154009, "excess_performance": 0.089369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104895, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032421, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091987, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040967, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002032, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154009, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.542596, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49006, "relative_activity": 1.825517, "balance": 5.542596, "dry_up": 0.8981, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02072, "annualized_volatility": 0.130534, "from_high_reference": -0.000349, "from_low_reference": 0.235637 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.355733, "fair_value_reference": 9.827276, "structural_low": 9.26, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.028148, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034345, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.028148, "worst_return": 0.028148, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059444, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 9.554, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 9.474, "volume": 133534, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", 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10.759867, 10.670036, 10.364752, 10.249282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.098, "volume": 1115, "typical_volume": 33245.35, "trend": 10.180867, "fair_value": 9.746183, "relative_strength": 4.185207, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.293699, "energy": 87.703599, "activity_lines": [ 10.874667, 10.770836, 10.454433, 10.310576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.116, "volume": 22759, "typical_volume": 32262.85, "trend": 10.218733, "fair_value": 9.762687, "relative_strength": 7.058476, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.764084, "energy": 89.393338, "activity_lines": [ 10.9728, 10.856836, 10.53991, 10.370908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.104, "volume": 8772, "typical_volume": 29489.75, "trend": 10.255467, "fair_value": 9.778655, "relative_strength": 7.680516, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.723111, "energy": 89.326797, "activity_lines": [ 11.039867, 10.921236, 10.618871, 10.428022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.178, "volume": 23141, "typical_volume": 28596.5, "trend": 10.291933, "fair_value": 9.795118, "relative_strength": 6.98276, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.445358, "energy": 89.762837, "activity_lines": [ 11.107333, 10.985091, 10.699329, 10.48754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.946, "volume": 15519, "typical_volume": 27184.55, "trend": 10.320867, "fair_value": 9.8085, "relative_strength": 2.462363, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.85154, "energy": 71.760677, "activity_lines": [ 11.072267, 10.9944, 10.751952, 10.529738 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.442, "volume": 49006, "typical_volume": 26845.0, "trend": 10.355733, "fair_value": 9.827276, "relative_strength": 4.096672, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.024125, "energy": 72.359334, "activity_lines": [ 11.190133, 11.089127, 10.846286, 10.602069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }