{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de48ed4d-ef26-4423-a5a3-9a8842680445", "symbol": "HEROMOTOCO", "name": "Hero MotoCorp Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.816, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.04, "architecture_energy": 53.531, "architecture_maturity": 10.098, "architecture_confidence": 93.035, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.9, "rotation_up": 68.86, "upward_expansion": 44.13, "deceleration": 30.99, "rotation_down": 19.36, "downward_expansion": 26.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 5317.140593, 5120.515634, 5059.384987, 5107.437643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5725.0, "trend_reference": 5198.755339, "distance_from_trend": 0.101225, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4513.799197, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268333, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.71005, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.014441, "excess_performance": 0.058151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101225, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044026, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268333, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036206, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.087101, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009124, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014441, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.472188, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4958269, "relative_activity": 2.023027, "balance": 1.472188, "dry_up": 1.587991, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037232, "annualized_volatility": 0.276894, "from_high_reference": -0.086391, "from_low_reference": 0.285875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5198.755339, "fair_value_reference": 4513.799197, "structural_low": 4754.071008, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023217, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017491, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.107431, "worst_return": -0.10838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.099152, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.039956, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.198485, "worst_return": -0.045651, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.243004, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.159042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.454497, "worst_return": 0.059145, "sufficient": false }, 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5011.100098, "volume": 4081935, "typical_volume": 2251332.4, "trend": 5211.128532, "fair_value": 4477.458271, "relative_strength": -0.770806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.311377, "energy": 31.705227, "activity_lines": [ 4895.474252, 4886.295588, 4960.946403, 5062.07021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5386.0, "volume": 4019035, "typical_volume": 2338062.85, "trend": 5196.676253, "fair_value": 4494.699213, "relative_strength": 3.501446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.131664, "energy": 12.370353, "activity_lines": [ 5068.503223, 4976.405611, 4994.451409, 5073.35224 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5725.0, "volume": 4958269, "typical_volume": 2450915.4, "trend": 5198.755339, "fair_value": 4513.799197, "relative_strength": 8.71005, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.04048, "energy": 53.53066, "activity_lines": [ 5317.140593, 5120.515634, 5059.384987, 5107.437643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }