{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de53b5bf-06f3-42c0-a38e-a8432935ae74", "symbol": "ELTX", "name": "Elicio Therapeutics Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.704, "architecture_energy": 71.584, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.02, "rotation_up": 16.58, "upward_expansion": 16.1, "deceleration": 40.87, "rotation_down": 68.42, "downward_expansion": 91.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.056667, 3.824727, 6.455524, 7.683677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.19, "trend_reference": 8.705333, "distance_from_trend": -0.633558, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.3725, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.567311, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.685202, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.616587, "excess_performance": -0.80404, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.633558, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100363, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.567311, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.847829, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.696852, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.57359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.616587, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.259774, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1671184, "relative_activity": 0.307317, "balance": 0.259774, "dry_up": 0.360875, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.75783, "annualized_volatility": 2.121021, "from_high_reference": -0.800625, "from_low_reference": 0.199248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.705333, "fair_value_reference": 7.3725, "structural_low": 2.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.009843, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.031655, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.663415, "worst_return": -0.272868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.135945, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.067259, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.945887, "worst_return": -0.29651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.404687, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.151759, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.967742, "worst_return": -0.568238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.502746, "energy": 81.506313, "activity_lines": [ 4.322, 6.998364, 8.834857, 9.257527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.11, "volume": 3324162, "typical_volume": 5340586.45, "trend": 9.211667, "fair_value": 7.506346, "relative_strength": -70.767416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.456038, "energy": 85.169957, "activity_lines": [ 3.398667, 6.025818, 8.181095, 8.853484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.0, "volume": 1393359, "typical_volume": 5361401.4, "trend": 9.042667, "fair_value": 7.461603, "relative_strength": -70.862623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.474529, "energy": 85.372337, "activity_lines": [ 3.221333, 5.156909, 7.563905, 8.452731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.8, "volume": 1461004, "typical_volume": 5387405.55, "trend": 8.867667, "fair_value": 7.416154, "relative_strength": -72.460481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.290958, "energy": 83.344355, "activity_lines": [ 3.034, 4.390364, 6.968762, 8.049978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.19, "volume": 1671184, "typical_volume": 5437975.9, "trend": 8.705333, "fair_value": 7.3725, "relative_strength": -69.685202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.704311, "energy": 71.583701, "activity_lines": [ 3.056667, 3.824727, 6.455524, 7.683677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }