{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de5b307e-88c6-4f26-8e9f-e398eb097f67", "symbol": "GABA", "name": "Gabather AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.423, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.462, "architecture_energy": 35.265, "architecture_maturity": 9.461, "architecture_confidence": 57.044, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.88, "rotation_up": 22.39, "upward_expansion": 14.03, "deceleration": 48.24, "rotation_down": 56.09, "downward_expansion": 55.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.03228, 0.034196, 0.037264, 0.03845 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0354, "trend_reference": 0.037993, "distance_from_trend": -0.068258, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.662017, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.946527, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.236981, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.18, "excess_performance": 0.118506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067428, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.946527, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010766, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0367, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.18, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.226902, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25081888, "relative_activity": 1.325949, "balance": 1.226902, "dry_up": 0.690102, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.276402, "annualized_volatility": 1.178951, "from_high_reference": -0.646, "from_low_reference": 0.53913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.037993, "fair_value_reference": 0.662017, "structural_low": 0.0252, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024156, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00217, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097919, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.074286, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.079532, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038384, "worst_return": -0.226364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.275455, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.338079, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.234343, "worst_return": -0.752143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.476132, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.654652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.181818, "worst_return": -0.885143, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-11-18", "end": "2023-02-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.274319, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.184697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04186, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.521127, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.568, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.886761, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.346154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.20904, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.372222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.185606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.264706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.187919, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.08, "volume": 121608, "typical_volume": 47834.05, "trend": 3.567833, "fair_value": 5.036058, "relative_strength": -48.428627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.952525, "energy": 63.493047, 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"fair_value": 0.695638, "relative_strength": -26.791021, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.076081, "energy": 47.943824, "activity_lines": [ 0.03264, 0.036244, 0.038792, 0.039106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0298, "volume": 14231968, "typical_volume": 19798276.0, "trend": 0.0377, "fair_value": 0.678521, "relative_strength": -26.867104, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.741106, "energy": 50.644678, "activity_lines": [ 0.031187, 0.034618, 0.037716, 0.038598 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0354, "volume": 25081888, "typical_volume": 18916173.25, "trend": 0.037993, "fair_value": 0.662017, "relative_strength": -13.236981, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.462296, "energy": 35.265253, "activity_lines": [ 0.03228, 0.034196, 0.037264, 0.03845 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }