{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de5bd7a4-5d31-4c49-a5cf-f0f7c2d8ae71", "symbol": "002381", "name": "Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.428, "architecture_energy": 54.503, "architecture_maturity": 75.775, "architecture_confidence": 90.52, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 25.05, "upward_expansion": 9.35, "deceleration": 60.37, "rotation_down": 51.63, "downward_expansion": 80.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.191333, 5.248364, 5.553545, 5.837745 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.33, "trend_reference": 6.205023, "distance_from_trend": -0.141019, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.668646, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200737, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.563681, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.247175, "excess_performance": -0.254575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141019, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070876, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200737, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004249, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.429212, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25297923, "relative_activity": 1.081975, "balance": 0.429212, "dry_up": 1.043842, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070788, "annualized_volatility": 0.275918, "from_high_reference": -0.285523, "from_low_reference": 0.08998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.205023, "fair_value_reference": 6.668646, "structural_low": 4.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.01912, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.009636, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.17175, "worst_return": -0.151604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.011615, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033584, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.124642, "worst_return": -0.160728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.052194, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.054655, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.172117, "worst_return": -0.206373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 24984795.8, "trend": 6.39169, "fair_value": 6.722127, "relative_strength": -28.863705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.659275, "energy": 87.71115, "activity_lines": [ 5.332, 5.522858, 5.882082, 6.134375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.27, "volume": 22597650, "typical_volume": 24601513.25, "trend": 6.35369, "fair_value": 6.709366, "relative_strength": -20.518401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.422233, "energy": 74.131287, "activity_lines": [ 5.296667, 5.43611, 5.794984, 6.062008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.91, "volume": 28055804, "typical_volume": 24064166.0, "trend": 6.295356, "fair_value": 6.69448, "relative_strength": -25.514756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.418967, "energy": 68.427397, "activity_lines": [ 5.164667, 5.308331, 5.682409, 5.968866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.18, "volume": 21673973, "typical_volume": 23715882.0, "trend": 6.247023, "fair_value": 6.681082, "relative_strength": -19.501168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.53325, "energy": 61.157325, "activity_lines": [ 5.152, 5.25579, 5.606263, 5.896908 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.33, "volume": 25297923, "typical_volume": 23381253.15, "trend": 6.205023, "fair_value": 6.668646, "relative_strength": -20.563681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.427981, "energy": 54.502748, "activity_lines": [ 5.191333, 5.248364, 5.553545, 5.837745 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }