{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de5c839c-d46e-4485-8798-8442c9aeaf38", "symbol": "600961", "name": "Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.702, "architecture_energy": 23.396, "architecture_maturity": 76.015, "architecture_confidence": 91.932, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.11, "rotation_up": 26.41, "upward_expansion": 44.96, "deceleration": 81.67, "rotation_down": 42.18, "downward_expansion": 34.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.070667, 26.201273, 26.411143, 25.305441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.4, "trend_reference": 23.792667, "distance_from_trend": 0.235675, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.758846, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.304284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 48.164246, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.282163, "excess_performance": 0.325367, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.235675, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184166, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.304284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.356371, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.481642, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238431, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.282163, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84548, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 341776388, "relative_activity": 1.650355, "balance": 0.84548, "dry_up": 1.254676, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138488, "annualized_volatility": 0.947848, "from_high_reference": -0.19891, "from_low_reference": 1.615658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.792667, "fair_value_reference": 12.758846, "structural_low": 15.96, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.012624, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.005714, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.803069, "worst_return": -0.278826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007535, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015535, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.45479, "worst_return": -0.268849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010074, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019303, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.680455, "worst_return": -0.225772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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29.920667, 28.594727, 26.433762, 24.740968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.52, "volume": 283613954, "typical_volume": 183300245.95, "trend": 22.716333, "fair_value": 12.36391, "relative_strength": 38.135299, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.260722, "energy": 43.953692, "activity_lines": [ 29.232, 28.306909, 26.629476, 25.009892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.120001, "volume": 229220398, "typical_volume": 187870599.3, "trend": 22.93, "fair_value": 12.453846, "relative_strength": 21.077506, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.816409, "energy": 19.678539, "activity_lines": [ 26.936667, 27.218546, 26.376143, 24.971419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.5, "volume": 275485340, "typical_volume": 191116236.45, "trend": 23.143333, "fair_value": 12.541282, "relative_strength": 20.263568, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.614576, "energy": 15.988792, "activity_lines": [ 24.987334, 26.340364, 26.167238, 24.943677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.700001, "volume": 192854041, "typical_volume": 195412956.15, "trend": 23.349333, "fair_value": 12.628205, "relative_strength": 19.583028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.573718, "energy": 22.322015, "activity_lines": [ 23.526001, 25.621455, 25.976095, 24.915075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.4, "volume": 341776388, "typical_volume": 207092595.2, "trend": 23.792667, "fair_value": 12.758846, "relative_strength": 48.164246, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.702152, "energy": 23.396086, "activity_lines": [ 25.070667, 26.201273, 26.411143, 25.305441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }