{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de5cf6f2-bee4-4cc8-9bfd-730499f0caf3", "symbol": "3993", "name": "CMOC Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.719, "architecture_energy": 18.4, "architecture_maturity": 62.117, "architecture_confidence": 53.12, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.93, "rotation_up": 33.61, "upward_expansion": 19.25, "deceleration": 43.65, "rotation_down": 22.83, "downward_expansion": 53.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.396, 16.912727, 17.244834, 17.607229 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.0, "trend_reference": 18.420659, "distance_from_trend": -0.077123, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.771246, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.739799, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.546924, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.258682, "excess_performance": -0.243391, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077123, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037099, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.739799, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.380586, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255139, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.258682, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.564014, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 191730374, "relative_activity": 1.167215, "balance": 1.564014, "dry_up": 1.131368, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116516, "annualized_volatility": 0.585642, "from_high_reference": -0.314487, "from_low_reference": 0.549002 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.420659, "fair_value_reference": 9.771246, "structural_low": 14.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.038861, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.046944, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.304832, "worst_return": -0.182371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019172, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.053411, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.557377, "worst_return": -0.259023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.086505, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.092657, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.712985, "worst_return": -0.226164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082321, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.167151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.11526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.235081, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.052127, "energy": 59.777542, "activity_lines": [ 15.902, 16.557455, 17.259184, 17.927992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.889999, "volume": 131491446, "typical_volume": 181517551.45, "trend": 18.797471, "fair_value": 9.516063, "relative_strength": -2.414247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.856797, "energy": 38.386549, "activity_lines": [ 16.286666, 16.517091, 17.197634, 17.798654 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.1, "volume": 247544646, "typical_volume": 178379845.55, "trend": 18.724755, "fair_value": 9.608993, "relative_strength": 10.176912, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.721767, "energy": 11.987, "activity_lines": [ 17.296666, 16.906727, 17.354231, 17.818172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.01, "volume": 172601914, "typical_volume": 169669787.8, "trend": 18.554861, "fair_value": 9.690536, "relative_strength": -0.43881, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.572229, "energy": 19.901904, "activity_lines": [ 17.416666, 16.900909, 17.301254, 17.707543 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 17.0, "volume": 191730374, "typical_volume": 164263113.75, "trend": 18.420659, "fair_value": 9.771246, "relative_strength": -4.546924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.718723, "energy": 18.400073, "activity_lines": [ 17.396, 16.912727, 17.244834, 17.607229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }