{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de64ef0a-4203-44ca-87d8-c074b16ae0d9", "symbol": "UPSL", "name": "Upsellon Brands Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.003, "architecture_energy": 83.925, "architecture_maturity": 57.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.33, "rotation_up": 29.68, "upward_expansion": 20.28, "deceleration": 38.1, "rotation_down": 58.84, "downward_expansion": 95.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.065733, 1.139236, 26.745847, 42.367092 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.056, "trend_reference": 57.046233, "distance_from_trend": -0.981489, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 87.021712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.313555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.985554, "excess_performance": -1.014454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.981489, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247477, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987865, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.08929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.983136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.189454, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.985554, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.216352, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76675, "relative_activity": 0.552722, "balance": 0.216352, "dry_up": 0.910548, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 9.519158, "annualized_volatility": 6.141295, "from_high_reference": -0.991665, "from_low_reference": 0.118644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.046233, "fair_value_reference": 87.021712, "structural_low": 0.944, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.07435, "positive_rate": 0.275, "directional_follow_through": 0.725, "median_excess_return": -0.080876, "regime_survival": 0.925, "best_return": 0.479224, "worst_return": -0.270893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.158114, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.207208, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.819602, "worst_return": -0.578448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.448683, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.578514, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.309816, "worst_return": -0.977863, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -98.418348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.42739, "energy": 87.417765, "activity_lines": [ 1.147, 6.797927, 37.083123, 49.960271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.034, "volume": 61695, "typical_volume": 141709.3, "trend": 58.8777, "fair_value": 87.911096, "relative_strength": -98.382808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.271825, "energy": 82.949739, "activity_lines": [ 1.093133, 3.020527, 31.714471, 46.097525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.056, "volume": 76675, "typical_volume": 138722.55, "trend": 57.046233, "fair_value": 87.021712, "relative_strength": -98.313555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.002615, "energy": 83.925309, "activity_lines": [ 1.065733, 1.139236, 26.745847, 42.367092 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }