{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de70bbfa-762f-412c-9bcf-62b1e656008a", "symbol": "PHR", "name": "Purpose Real Estate Income Fund ETF Share", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.771, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.323, "architecture_energy": 62.144, "architecture_maturity": 87.458, "architecture_confidence": 63.679, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.63, "rotation_up": 49.89, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.46, "rotation_down": 29.29, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.559408, 21.55696, 21.264858, 20.975977 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.290001, "trend_reference": 20.637138, "distance_from_trend": 0.031635, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.343826, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160609, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.230679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.062563, "excess_performance": -0.057859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031635, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041626, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160609, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005318, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062563, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.454545, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 0.25641, "balance": 5.454545, "dry_up": 0.769231, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011819, "annualized_volatility": 0.08826, "from_high_reference": -0.035342, "from_low_reference": 0.143504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.637138, "fair_value_reference": 18.343826, "structural_low": 19.314587, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.005072, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": -0.011594, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.071767, "worst_return": -0.073644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015274, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.02689, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.063556, "worst_return": -0.157248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019053, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.047424, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.093378, "worst_return": -0.145202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007292, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.105403, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.130356, "worst_return": -0.065383, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010827, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079198, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031464, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005612, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011469, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006129, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02956, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004147, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 21.848066, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 445.0, "trend": 20.41184, "fair_value": 18.251605, "relative_strength": -0.471779, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.112604, "energy": 94.766114, "activity_lines": [ 21.67855, 21.447804, 21.045976, 20.776186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.638754, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 405.0, "trend": 20.502083, "fair_value": 18.282233, "relative_strength": -1.469571, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.461925, "energy": 88.1704, "activity_lines": [ 21.695235, 21.523169, 21.136332, 20.855342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.67, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 405.0, "trend": 20.588062, "fair_value": 18.314078, "relative_strength": -0.66868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.601583, "energy": 66.905222, "activity_lines": [ 21.696348, 21.582621, 21.223262, 20.930691 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.290001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 390.0, "trend": 20.637138, "fair_value": 18.343826, "relative_strength": -5.230679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.322731, "energy": 62.143759, "activity_lines": [ 21.559408, 21.55696, 21.264858, 20.975977 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }