{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de72e54f-253a-4fd9-9a77-4075aac4d646", "symbol": "VTGN", "name": "VistaGen Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.062, "architecture_energy": 79.803, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.354, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.77, "rotation_up": 9.51, "upward_expansion": 19.26, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 74.22, "downward_expansion": 92.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.253173, 0.323055, 0.43646, 0.482872 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.2876, "trend_reference": 0.532163, "distance_from_trend": -0.459564, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.936347, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.902055, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -85.658228, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.489347, "excess_performance": -0.6768, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.459564, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.607615, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.902055, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097452, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.856582, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085716, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.489347, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.274857, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130483634, "relative_activity": 9.376059, "balance": 2.274857, "dry_up": 2.57823, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.44069, "annualized_volatility": 1.557452, "from_high_reference": -0.944047, "from_low_reference": 0.452525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.532163, "fair_value_reference": 2.936347, "structural_low": 0.198, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.046921, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.043102, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 2.627119, "worst_return": -0.835913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.079938, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.098345, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 1.833333, "worst_return": -0.795238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.200097, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.248592, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.371429, "worst_return": -0.858571, "sufficient": true }, { 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56.342327, "activity_lines": [ 0.420547, 0.502282, 0.551021, 0.566077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.2292, "volume": 4422375, "typical_volume": 7358689.9, "trend": 0.575913, "fair_value": 2.995033, "relative_strength": -89.225241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.992152, "energy": 84.090418, "activity_lines": [ 0.33326, 0.443744, 0.518158, 0.542529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2264, "volume": 3680377, "typical_volume": 7387501.7, "trend": 0.55918, "fair_value": 2.984882, "relative_strength": -88.824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.363055, "energy": 86.78111, "activity_lines": [ 0.268173, 0.391629, 0.486727, 0.519979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.241, "volume": 4935267, "typical_volume": 7520413.0, "trend": 0.54458, "fair_value": 2.975658, "relative_strength": -87.775984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.736245, "energy": 84.854505, "activity_lines": [ 0.23754, 0.349415, 0.458502, 0.499452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2876, "volume": 130483634, "typical_volume": 13916682.7, "trend": 0.532163, "fair_value": 2.936347, "relative_strength": -85.658228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.061868, "energy": 79.802631, "activity_lines": [ 0.253173, 0.323055, 0.43646, 0.482872 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }