{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de7776a7-c8dc-44eb-b55f-01a4d0a21413", "symbol": "W", "name": "Wayfair Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.706, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.289, "architecture_energy": 34.814, "architecture_maturity": 38.263, "architecture_confidence": 61.876, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.95, "rotation_up": 49.56, "upward_expansion": 45.54, "deceleration": 48.39, "rotation_down": 25.21, "downward_expansion": 10.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.866, 90.973818, 83.713571, 81.448516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 106.6, "trend_reference": 82.272333, "distance_from_trend": 0.295697, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.002756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.691989, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.885206, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.151188, "excess_performance": 0.025563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.295697, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062997, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.691989, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.607495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.088852, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.341639, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.151188, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.740846, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34285430, "relative_activity": 1.825218, "balance": 2.740846, "dry_up": 1.07643, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119967, "annualized_volatility": 0.652433, "from_high_reference": -0.111519, "from_low_reference": 0.917266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.272333, "fair_value_reference": 63.002756, "structural_low": 55.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.182726, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.158801, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.267648, "worst_return": -0.412771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.232903, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.160841, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.900434, "worst_return": -0.453561, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.14669, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011818, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.110846, "worst_return": -0.145381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 90.812667, 83.608, 78.181429, 79.456581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 89.31, "volume": 11380687, "typical_volume": 17761137.55, "trend": 83.906667, "fair_value": 62.7175, "relative_strength": -4.505496, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.267851, "energy": 55.117329, "activity_lines": [ 90.962, 85.728545, 79.45619, 79.778538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 84.18, "volume": 17096844, "typical_volume": 17729695.0, "trend": 83.305333, "fair_value": 62.78859, "relative_strength": -9.600321, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.401503, "energy": 30.539291, "activity_lines": [ 88.62, 86.497273, 80.180571, 79.796172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 84.9, "volume": 18116930, "typical_volume": 17824531.6, "trend": 82.583333, "fair_value": 62.800192, "relative_strength": -9.920012, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.83849, "energy": 17.063807, "activity_lines": [ 86.807333, 86.924909, 80.935524, 79.899054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 106.6, "volume": 34285430, "typical_volume": 18784288.8, "trend": 82.272333, "fair_value": 63.002756, "relative_strength": 8.885206, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.288519, "energy": 34.814416, "activity_lines": [ 92.866, 90.973818, 83.713571, 81.448516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }