{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de788869-5d62-4292-911d-28472dbf316b", "symbol": "2528", "name": "Daiwa ETF Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Core Index", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.179, "architecture_energy": 18.554, "architecture_maturity": 34.745, "architecture_confidence": 65.569, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.75, "rotation_up": 36.39, "upward_expansion": 27.96, "deceleration": 47.17, "rotation_down": 22.55, "downward_expansion": 47.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 1119.666667, 1113.436568, 1110.312516, 1121.569217 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1101.0, "trend_reference": 1140.114164, "distance_from_trend": -0.034307, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1027.773961, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071247, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.690947, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072959, "excess_performance": -0.282217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021591, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071247, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032844, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072959, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.839823, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 191129, "relative_activity": 2.523007, "balance": 1.839823, "dry_up": 1.863617, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02434, "annualized_volatility": 0.11358, "from_high_reference": -0.102482, "from_low_reference": 0.038668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1140.114164, "fair_value_reference": 1027.773961, "structural_low": 1060.01123, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.001932, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.009024, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.04185, "worst_return": -0.033021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.005455, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024482, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.021256, "worst_return": -0.065817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014323, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.036147, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.007263, "worst_return": -0.025614, "sufficient": 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"relative_strength": -18.318282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.679374, "energy": 22.753246, "activity_lines": [ 1120.466667, 1107.535545, 1110.829984, 1124.998885 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1135.0, "volume": 165858, "typical_volume": 70457.35, "trend": 1143.653601, "fair_value": 1027.13694, "relative_strength": -17.358281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.44971, "energy": 17.91455, "activity_lines": [ 1126.8, 1113.978447, 1112.101306, 1124.321062 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1101.0, "volume": 191129, "typical_volume": 75754.45, "trend": 1140.114164, "fair_value": 1027.773961, "relative_strength": -20.690947, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.178817, "energy": 18.554314, "activity_lines": [ 1119.666667, 1113.436568, 1110.312516, 1121.569217 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }