{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de7d393b-1902-4cb8-8e20-be661663943e", "symbol": "XSD", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P SEMICONDUCTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.664, "architecture_energy": 18.995, "architecture_maturity": 78.249, "architecture_confidence": 75.715, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.44, "rotation_up": 20.24, "upward_expansion": 48.21, "deceleration": 85.02, "rotation_down": 38.57, "downward_expansion": 28.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 514.664667, 535.055714, 541.519823, 505.586624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 544.67, "trend_reference": 457.468183, "distance_from_trend": 0.190618, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 283.949928, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.91819, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.1651, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.518862, "excess_performance": 0.393237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.190618, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198394, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.91819, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255099, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.231651, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.314963, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.518862, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.849345, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 700928, "relative_activity": 1.264507, "balance": 0.849345, "dry_up": 0.887695, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124946, "annualized_volatility": 0.488291, "from_high_reference": -0.172113, "from_low_reference": 1.043344 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 457.468183, "fair_value_reference": 283.949928, "structural_low": 303.44, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015293, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.000963, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.179582, "worst_return": -0.125177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.027477, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.067586, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.093102, "worst_return": -0.126222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005667, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.080821, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.909331, "worst_return": -0.162151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080853, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09259, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.417942, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088191, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.129409, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.901646, "energy": 39.717599, "activity_lines": [ 575.602368, 583.102806, 535.232643, 489.126629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 500.19, "volume": 537209, "typical_volume": 511742.75, "trend": 440.280428, "fair_value": 278.319508, "relative_strength": 20.722401, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.284624, "energy": 24.843143, "activity_lines": [ 546.811434, 568.152345, 537.323398, 493.364668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 494.31, "volume": 376551, "typical_volume": 519839.2, "trend": 445.826404, "fair_value": 280.046622, "relative_strength": 18.987609, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.046609, "energy": 24.469408, "activity_lines": [ 523.083333, 553.110628, 538.143001, 496.850447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 487.47, "volume": 353542, "typical_volume": 528082.95, "trend": 450.902846, "fair_value": 281.77889, "relative_strength": 15.171826, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.952027, "energy": 21.058449, "activity_lines": [ 506.526, 537.826415, 537.489148, 499.53713 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 544.67, "volume": 700928, "typical_volume": 554309.1, "trend": 457.468183, "fair_value": 283.949928, "relative_strength": 23.1651, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.663527, "energy": 18.9952, "activity_lines": [ 514.664667, 535.055714, 541.519823, 505.586624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }