{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de7dd395-8fc2-4d74-9e95-b0e8a4f57b0b", "symbol": "V1MC34", "name": "Vulcan Materials Company", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 89.412, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.91, "architecture_energy": 44.629, "architecture_maturity": 23.842, "architecture_confidence": 62.381, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.15, "rotation_up": 8.92, "upward_expansion": 12.44, "deceleration": 62.44, "rotation_down": 69.85, "downward_expansion": 69.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.726667, 24.357818, 24.243851, 24.38861 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.42, "trend_reference": 24.713302, "distance_from_trend": -0.052332, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.181176, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010302, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.750242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.090576, "excess_performance": -0.033527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052332, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009206, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010302, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031965, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107502, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105386, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090576, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.036663, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.036663, "dry_up": 4.736987, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037506, "annualized_volatility": 0.211111, "from_high_reference": -0.154623, "from_low_reference": 0.116844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.713302, "fair_value_reference": 23.181176, "structural_low": 20.969804, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005384, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.01373, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.20366, "worst_return": -0.067033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.059652, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.100712, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.250398, "worst_return": -0.089557, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.056764, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.033527, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.015867, "worst_return": -0.090576, 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24.898063, "fair_value": 23.11148, "relative_strength": -12.76903, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.412146, "energy": 22.037224, "activity_lines": [ 24.738667, 24.770909, 24.419478, 24.573367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 181.55, "trend": 24.805682, "fair_value": 23.148126, "relative_strength": -14.059754, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.303523, "energy": 35.3041, "activity_lines": [ 24.145333, 24.566545, 24.326771, 24.478008 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 181.55, "trend": 24.713302, "fair_value": 23.181176, "relative_strength": -10.750242, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.909868, "energy": 44.629121, "activity_lines": [ 23.726667, 24.357818, 24.243851, 24.38861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }