{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de822388-3ff8-4f1c-a90c-6993f4e86616", "symbol": "MTL", "name": "Metals Exploration plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.866, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.079, "architecture_energy": 6.873, "architecture_maturity": 35.572, "architecture_confidence": 66.214, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.45, "rotation_up": 29.65, "upward_expansion": 22.92, "deceleration": 32.7, "rotation_down": 27.35, "downward_expansion": 54.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.134167, 0.133073, 0.13316, 0.135038 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.1406, "trend_reference": 0.13965, "distance_from_trend": 0.006803, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.080948, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.736909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.434526, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129412, "excess_performance": -0.180647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006803, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004964, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.736909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125075, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003866, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129412, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.529209, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21290587, "relative_activity": 1.068093, "balance": 0.529209, "dry_up": 0.951358, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08304, "annualized_volatility": 0.469408, "from_high_reference": -0.267708, "from_low_reference": 0.365049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.13965, "fair_value_reference": 0.080948, "structural_low": 0.113, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.009153, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.324324, "worst_return": -0.162791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007937, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005649, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.631579, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.017857, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035839, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.105263, "worst_return": -0.254902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.767123, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085938, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.119718, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.239837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 19609001, "typical_volume": 21577567.65, "trend": 0.140597, "fair_value": 0.079477, "relative_strength": -11.912357, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.494491, "energy": 17.917696, "activity_lines": [ 0.133867, 0.132527, 0.133221, 0.135923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.126, "volume": 21104931, "typical_volume": 21384418.05, "trend": 0.13973, "fair_value": 0.080162, "relative_strength": -15.294825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.52853, "energy": 18.995907, "activity_lines": [ 0.131667, 0.131382, 0.13246, 0.134982 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1406, "volume": 21290587, "typical_volume": 19933262.25, "trend": 0.13965, "fair_value": 0.080948, "relative_strength": -5.434526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.079307, "energy": 6.873334, "activity_lines": [ 0.134167, 0.133073, 0.13316, 0.135038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }