{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de8479aa-4445-41c8-b8f7-114088e1c404", "symbol": "CSGLDC", "name": "iShares Gold CHF Hedged ETF (CH) A", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.519, "architecture_energy": 51.384, "architecture_maturity": 63.869, "architecture_confidence": 72.794, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.35, "rotation_up": 26.5, "upward_expansion": 20.32, "deceleration": 66.71, "rotation_down": 52.67, "downward_expansion": 74.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 258.056664, 257.540908, 267.050238, 276.651612 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 270.299988, "trend_reference": 289.053332, "distance_from_trend": -0.064878, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 207.355, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.303561, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.550047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138898, "excess_performance": -0.221781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064878, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016608, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.303561, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138898, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419168, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15873, "relative_activity": 1.065191, "balance": 0.419168, "dry_up": 0.852361, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039273, "annualized_volatility": 0.241202, "from_high_reference": -0.236225, "from_low_reference": 0.247922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 289.053332, "fair_value_reference": 207.355, "structural_low": 245.800003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006653, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.005687, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.079058, "worst_return": -0.047592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035013, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.03097, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.133118, "worst_return": -0.037537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.085335, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.033181, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090585, "worst_return": 0.039708, "sufficient": false }, { 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.914818, "energy": 72.969325, "activity_lines": [ 253.743334, 258.127274, 270.473334, 280.454623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 251.050003, "volume": 14289, "typical_volume": 16089.05, "trend": 289.664998, "fair_value": 206.509872, "relative_strength": -16.716871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.886845, "energy": 66.75077, "activity_lines": [ 252.573335, 255.789093, 267.682382, 277.900968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 270.299988, "volume": 15873, "typical_volume": 14901.55, "trend": 289.053332, "fair_value": 207.355, "relative_strength": -11.550047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.518677, "energy": 51.38355, "activity_lines": [ 258.056664, 257.540908, 267.050238, 276.651612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }