{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de899487-9887-49dc-9461-53dcb994e6c0", "symbol": "MAA", "name": "Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.7, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.834, "architecture_energy": 17.825, "architecture_maturity": 37.441, "architecture_confidence": 73.912, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.76, "rotation_up": 28.67, "upward_expansion": 56.22, "deceleration": 85.53, "rotation_down": 26.13, "downward_expansion": 17.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.694508, 134.708421, 133.219627, 131.70367 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 134.96, "trend_reference": 130.834928, "distance_from_trend": 0.031529, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 133.308534, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012388, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.755881, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.034002, "excess_performance": -0.091623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031529, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011217, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012388, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041828, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087559, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059902, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034002, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.787167, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4825517, "relative_activity": 0.985668, "balance": 0.787167, "dry_up": 1.189603, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047565, "annualized_volatility": 0.217542, "from_high_reference": -0.054587, "from_low_reference": 0.135683 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 130.834928, "fair_value_reference": 133.308534, "structural_low": 118.835961, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.010187, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.014902, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.106683, "worst_return": -0.079827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034504, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.045116, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.121282, "worst_return": -0.090189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026647, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.011009, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.210619, "worst_return": -0.207217, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.72642, "energy": 35.075769, "activity_lines": [ 135.363547, 135.072511, 132.118684, 131.146571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 133.88, "volume": 5027141, "typical_volume": 4746778.35, "trend": 130.879866, "fair_value": 133.244405, "relative_strength": -6.068828, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.996082, "energy": 24.486078, "activity_lines": [ 134.836907, 135.085329, 132.520854, 131.338574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 132.34, "volume": 7942182, "typical_volume": 4926660.8, "trend": 130.761146, "fair_value": 133.265394, "relative_strength": -7.763323, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.897893, "energy": 19.405585, "activity_lines": [ 133.603547, 134.669602, 132.763472, 131.432777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 134.96, "volume": 4825517, "typical_volume": 4895681.65, "trend": 130.834928, "fair_value": 133.308534, "relative_strength": -8.755881, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.834483, "energy": 17.825497, "activity_lines": [ 133.694508, 134.708421, 133.219627, 131.70367 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }