{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de8a8707-15dd-4cfc-bc60-3a21b824c217", "symbol": "HSBC", "name": "HSBC Holdings PLC ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.858, "architecture_energy": 84.388, "architecture_maturity": 44.34, "architecture_confidence": 87.744, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.15, "rotation_up": 80.27, "upward_expansion": 98.74, "deceleration": 39.66, "rotation_down": 10.48, "downward_expansion": 20.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 103.656, 100.746182, 96.859004, 93.672619 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 103.73, "trend_reference": 89.867846, "distance_from_trend": 0.15425, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.632587, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.898684, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.246909, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.201911, "excess_performance": 0.076287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.15425, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106176, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.898684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078067, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.152469, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02417, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.201911, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.029039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8922176, "relative_activity": 1.102742, "balance": 2.029039, "dry_up": 0.916094, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04408, "annualized_volatility": 0.275516, "from_high_reference": -0.038824, "from_low_reference": 0.707708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 89.867846, "fair_value_reference": 54.632587, "structural_low": 75.781276, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.03241, "positive_rate": 0.707317, "directional_follow_through": 0.707317, "median_excess_return": 0.010666, "regime_survival": 0.756098, "best_return": 0.175788, "worst_return": -0.102867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.081895, "positive_rate": 0.866667, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": 0.045352, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.228019, "worst_return": -0.109404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.173689, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.052591, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.411371, "worst_return": -0.02507, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": 78.321567, "energy": 76.280851, "activity_lines": [ 96.428667, 94.621142, 91.858386, 89.56718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 100.61, "volume": 7280576, "typical_volume": 8726627.95, "trend": 87.168318, "fair_value": 53.261362, "relative_strength": 18.781678, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.722097, "energy": 80.937151, "activity_lines": [ 98.148, 95.971091, 92.95412, 90.488784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 103.4, "volume": 6720787, "typical_volume": 8443790.25, "trend": 88.038456, "fair_value": 53.707711, "relative_strength": 21.935473, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.463276, "energy": 87.763174, "activity_lines": [ 100.268, 97.629091, 94.265258, 91.53599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 106.42, "volume": 6724580, "typical_volume": 8198410.7, "trend": 88.993796, "fair_value": 54.178295, "relative_strength": 23.157633, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.523302, "energy": 91.949879, "activity_lines": [ 102.832667, 99.563091, 95.758488, 92.721896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 103.73, "volume": 8922176, "typical_volume": 8090901.05, "trend": 89.867846, "fair_value": 54.632587, "relative_strength": 15.246909, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.857739, "energy": 84.387907, "activity_lines": [ 103.656, 100.746182, 96.859004, 93.672619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }