{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de8b3a77-cb4a-47e1-8e00-837e7187e383", "symbol": "ADPV", "name": "SERIES PORTFOLIOS TRUST ADAPTIV SELECT ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.195, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.613, "architecture_energy": 18.306, "architecture_maturity": 48.974, "architecture_confidence": 73.702, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.08, "rotation_up": 18.44, "upward_expansion": 50.73, "deceleration": 93.32, "rotation_down": 35.65, "downward_expansion": 19.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.2647, 45.842627, 45.799032, 45.187378 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.1881, "trend_reference": 44.68732, "distance_from_trend": 0.011206, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.173193, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284731, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.733543, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005325, "excess_performance": -0.13095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011206, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026718, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284731, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09733, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071602, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005325, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.681476, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38787, "relative_activity": 0.654353, "balance": 0.681476, "dry_up": 0.801067, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045617, "annualized_volatility": 0.211065, "from_high_reference": -0.090966, "from_low_reference": 0.183293 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.68732, "fair_value_reference": 35.173193, "structural_low": 40.23, 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34.078225, "relative_strength": 4.077111, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.390822, "energy": 82.186219, "activity_lines": [ 46.88106, 45.959709, 44.59669, 44.341972 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 47.85, "volume": 48491, "typical_volume": 59900.5, "trend": 44.19657, "fair_value": 34.234571, "relative_strength": 0.979609, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.308214, "energy": 76.848834, "activity_lines": [ 47.378707, 46.470611, 44.956088, 44.595817 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 47.57, "volume": 54969, "typical_volume": 59206.15, "trend": 44.35284, "fair_value": 34.381978, "relative_strength": 2.653508, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.937361, "energy": 71.669322, "activity_lines": [ 47.568867, 46.828422, 45.268914, 44.813457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 45.91, "volume": 106417, "typical_volume": 61118.0, "trend": 44.44881, "fair_value": 34.521093, "relative_strength": -3.095119, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.030468, "energy": 56.378083, "activity_lines": [ 47.105567, 46.790233, 45.413455, 44.913919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.17, "volume": 36714, "typical_volume": 61399.85, "trend": 44.532918, "fair_value": 34.656356, "relative_strength": -3.866844, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.384632, "energy": 37.228755, "activity_lines": [ 46.78, 46.754022, 45.576805, 45.024964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.27, "volume": 60898, "typical_volume": 61963.1, "trend": 44.590007, "fair_value": 34.786154, "relative_strength": -4.144146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.01028, "energy": 20.600664, "activity_lines": [ 46.116667, 46.523925, 45.650774, 45.072517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.8, "volume": 46249, "typical_volume": 61900.0, "trend": 44.657207, "fair_value": 34.917048, "relative_strength": -2.409536, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.132655, "energy": 22.084716, "activity_lines": [ 45.865333, 46.404738, 45.774648, 45.150582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.73, "volume": 44000, "typical_volume": 59466.15, "trend": 44.69054, "fair_value": 35.042094, "relative_strength": -5.619861, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.070556, "energy": 18.114288, "activity_lines": [ 45.394, 46.069873, 45.774787, 45.155278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.1881, "volume": 38787, "typical_volume": 59275.35, "trend": 44.68732, "fair_value": 35.173193, "relative_strength": -7.733543, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.613242, "energy": 18.305745, "activity_lines": [ 45.2647, 45.842627, 45.799032, 45.187378 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }