{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de8e72e4-c536-4ecc-9d40-49d8e1b6ceac", "symbol": "SCI", "name": "SCI Electric Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.486, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.524, "architecture_energy": 26.725, "architecture_maturity": 48.067, "architecture_confidence": 92.532, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.78, "rotation_up": 18.82, "upward_expansion": 2.41, "deceleration": 48.43, "rotation_down": 47.86, "downward_expansion": 75.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.935333, 0.937455, 0.947619, 0.953161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.93, "trend_reference": 0.954667, "distance_from_trend": -0.025838, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.887051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048417, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.497424, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033333, "excess_performance": -0.158992, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025838, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048417, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028528, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204974, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012612, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.046512, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 222400, "relative_activity": 1.207908, "balance": 1.046512, "dry_up": 1.127797, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051282, "annualized_volatility": 0.14389, "from_high_reference": -0.340426, "from_low_reference": 0.273973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.954667, "fair_value_reference": 0.887051, "structural_low": 0.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.006932, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.382979, "worst_return": -0.126168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.019417, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.007766, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.368421, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038835, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.064192, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.547619, "worst_return": -0.236025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.16175, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.27396, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.065934, "worst_return": -0.583851, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114583, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.236111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043956, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.13253, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.322917, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.203252, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107843, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060606, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.83, "volume": 480500, "typical_volume": 717230.0, "trend": 1.171, "fair_value": 1.636859, "relative_strength": -33.196364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.653576, "energy": 32.152741, "activity_lines": [ 0.938667, 0.948545, 0.957143, 0.957355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.92, "volume": 207500, "typical_volume": 210335.0, "trend": 0.950333, "fair_value": 0.885962, "relative_strength": -25.403427, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.379235, "energy": 40.428581, "activity_lines": [ 0.930667, 0.942182, 0.952905, 0.955441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.95, "volume": 397500, "typical_volume": 212415.0, "trend": 0.951667, "fair_value": 0.886346, "relative_strength": -22.314103, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.293472, "energy": 29.117269, "activity_lines": [ 0.935333, 0.942, 0.951905, 0.955419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.94, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 194830.0, "trend": 0.953333, "fair_value": 0.886667, "relative_strength": -21.269482, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.107955, "energy": 21.026248, "activity_lines": [ 0.936667, 0.940364, 0.950143, 0.954667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.93, "volume": 222400, "typical_volume": 184120.0, "trend": 0.954667, "fair_value": 0.887051, "relative_strength": -20.497424, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.523606, "energy": 26.724592, "activity_lines": [ 0.935333, 0.937455, 0.947619, 0.953161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }