{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de9b0ca9-48c7-4f52-ac7d-936beafe2da1", "symbol": "PERR", "name": "G\u00e9rard Perrier Industrie S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.477, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.975, "architecture_energy": 63.909, "architecture_maturity": 6.371, "architecture_confidence": 81.792, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.31, "rotation_up": 14.63, "upward_expansion": 18.79, "deceleration": 31.8, "rotation_down": 66.37, "downward_expansion": 85.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.546666, 81.24968, 81.617928, 82.130168 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 80.599998, "trend_reference": 83.061877, "distance_from_trend": -0.029639, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 86.168369, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.064622, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.11144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073563, "excess_performance": -0.126875, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029639, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007613, "read": "Rising" 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77.840378, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007094, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.015452, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.069124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004966, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012763, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.180905, "worst_return": -0.032634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016491, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04748, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.082759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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80.400002, "volume": 1415, "typical_volume": 3280.1, "trend": 83.241877, "fair_value": 86.394315, "relative_strength": -5.257037, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.314389, "energy": 43.330013, "activity_lines": [ 81.36, 81.913807, 81.941322, 82.502023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.0, "volume": 4582, "typical_volume": 3350.85, "trend": 83.121877, "fair_value": 86.279419, "relative_strength": -6.921111, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.098205, "energy": 58.04261, "activity_lines": [ 80.813334, 81.50968, 81.741054, 82.29287 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.599998, "volume": 4947, "typical_volume": 3501.35, "trend": 83.061877, "fair_value": 86.168369, "relative_strength": -8.11144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.975347, "energy": 63.908981, "activity_lines": [ 80.546666, 81.24968, 81.617928, 82.130168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }