{ "ticker": { "uuid": "de9cbe22-22fa-4dc6-a7ca-cf271503f539", "symbol": "2736", "name": "HOYA Resort Hotel Group", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.434, "architecture_energy": 50.329, "architecture_maturity": 78.708, "architecture_confidence": 91.733, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.55, "rotation_up": 20.82, "upward_expansion": 6.65, "deceleration": 48.89, "rotation_down": 61.11, "downward_expansion": 82.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.543333, 11.68, 11.932619, 12.221183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.35, "trend_reference": 12.691667, "distance_from_trend": -0.105712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.966144, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.431538, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -43.053836, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.19788, "excess_performance": -0.639252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081202, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.431538, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02871, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.430538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045805, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19788, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.564282, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 246815, "relative_activity": 0.560146, "balance": 0.564282, "dry_up": 0.704499, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049475, "annualized_volatility": 0.179834, "from_high_reference": -0.334311, "from_low_reference": 0.004425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.691667, "fair_value_reference": 19.966144, "structural_low": 11.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.004219, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.031061, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.201207, "worst_return": -0.235294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005988, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.087092, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.143137, "worst_return": -0.229209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00111, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.130535, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.98434, "worst_return": -0.203822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.480457, "energy": 48.021246, "activity_lines": [ 11.86, 11.939091, 12.240714, 12.573118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.85, "volume": 295333, "typical_volume": 437127.85, "trend": 13.0, "fair_value": 20.472743, "relative_strength": -40.852831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.126917, "energy": 42.631169, "activity_lines": [ 11.843333, 11.911818, 12.180238, 12.492473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.65, "volume": 471420, "typical_volume": 444431.45, "trend": 12.903333, "fair_value": 20.29604, "relative_strength": -40.083134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.709859, "energy": 45.422641, "activity_lines": [ 11.773333, 11.850909, 12.106429, 12.405376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.5, "volume": 228115, "typical_volume": 443756.75, "trend": 12.801667, "fair_value": 20.122146, "relative_strength": -41.302395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.472202, "energy": 48.135563, "activity_lines": [ 11.663333, 11.774545, 12.023571, 12.314839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.35, "volume": 246815, "typical_volume": 440626.55, "trend": 12.691667, "fair_value": 19.966144, "relative_strength": -43.053836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.433903, "energy": 50.329312, "activity_lines": [ 11.543333, 11.68, 11.932619, 12.221183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }