{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dea1b1e1-4b22-4b5a-8305-8fda565de884", "symbol": "4934", "name": "Tainergy Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.713, "architecture_energy": 68.167, "architecture_maturity": 13.167, "architecture_confidence": 85.519, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.24, "rotation_up": 9.3, "upward_expansion": 15.29, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 73.1, "downward_expansion": 90.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.4, 15.291818, 16.022619, 16.366667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.3, "trend_reference": 16.62, "distance_from_trend": -0.139591, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.546346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.228959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.383444, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.141141, "excess_performance": -0.582513, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139591, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053677, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.228959, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.323834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141141, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.77559, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2007803, "relative_activity": 0.321989, "balance": 0.77559, "dry_up": 0.435026, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133136, "annualized_volatility": 0.511311, "from_high_reference": -0.370044, "from_low_reference": 0.566265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.62, "fair_value_reference": 18.546346, "structural_low": 13.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.050418, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.46789, "worst_return": -0.199362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.045936, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.042572, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.09633, "worst_return": -0.257895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.098077, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.165349, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.132969, "worst_return": -0.385621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 0.91004, "energy": 4.336813, "activity_lines": [ 16.646667, 16.878182, 16.928095, 16.923441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.25, "volume": 3415208, "typical_volume": 7491091.1, "trend": 16.61, "fair_value": 18.950833, "relative_strength": -25.536758, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.660166, "energy": 27.362338, "activity_lines": [ 16.12, 16.566364, 16.748571, 16.839355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.05, "volume": 3111156, "typical_volume": 7206698.15, "trend": 16.605, "fair_value": 18.802436, "relative_strength": -30.191233, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.11021, "energy": 47.065439, "activity_lines": [ 15.316667, 16.060909, 16.473333, 16.674193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.15, "volume": 2316472, "typical_volume": 6512275.2, "trend": 16.611667, "fair_value": 18.671026, "relative_strength": -31.095185, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.192005, "energy": 66.604358, "activity_lines": [ 14.696667, 15.634545, 16.229524, 16.515806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.3, "volume": 2007803, "typical_volume": 6235632.65, "trend": 16.62, "fair_value": 18.546346, "relative_strength": -32.383444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.712806, "energy": 68.166596, "activity_lines": [ 14.4, 15.291818, 16.022619, 16.366667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }